- Follow The more accurate guide to the future on WordPress.com
I D Pearson BSc DSc(hc) FWAAS CITP FBCS FWIF
I’m an all-round futurist/futurologist with a sound engineering foundation and over 1800 inventions. I spend most of my time writing futures material for white papers or to accompany PR campaigns, but I’ve also delivered well over 1000 conference presentations and appeared over 750 times on TV and Radio, often following writing I’ve done for PR campaigns. I’ve written hundreds of commissioned reports, press articles and seven books, most recently Society Tomorrow, Space Anchor, Total Sustainability and You Tomorrow (2nd Edn). I sometimes undertake phone or face-to-face consultancy on any aspect of the future, usually from a technology perspective, using over 30 years experience as a futurologist and engineer. I have demonstrated about 85% accuracy when looking 10-15 years ahead.
I am a Chartered Fellow of the British Computer Society and a Fellow of the World Academy for Arts and Science and the World Innovation Foundation.
My email address is firstname.lastname@example.org
- RT @mattwridley: An interesting statistic: that China now burns more coal than all other countries put together: 1907m tonnes vs 1864m tonn… 26 minutes ago
- Contentment is the enemy of progress :) twitter.com/Jeffreyholst/s… 2 hours ago
- Agree. Most people are tolerant and sympathetic of anyone 'identifying' as they wish. Privileges gained in doing so… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 4 hours ago
- Each on their total merits, without discriminating by race or gender, positively or negatively. twitter.com/RANDCorporatio… 16 hours ago
- Battery breakthrough for electric vehicles could revolutionise industry Father-of-eight invents an electric car bat… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
- 251,371 hits
Tag Archives: women
Many people perceive it as a problem that there are far more men than women in IT. Whether that is because of personal preference, discrimination, lifestyle choices, social gender construct reinforcement or any other factor makes long and interesting debate, but whatever conclusions are reached, we can only start from the reality of where we are. Even if activists were to be totally successful in eliminating all social and genetic gender conditioning, it would only work fully for babies born tomorrow and entering IT in 20 years time. Additionally, unless activists also plan to lobotomize everyone who doesn’t submit to their demands, some 20-somethings who have just started work may still be working in 50 years so whatever their origin, natural, social or some mix or other, some existing gender-related attitudes, prejudices and preferences might persist in the workplace that long, however much effort is made to remove them.
Nevertheless, the outlook for women in IT is very good, because IT is changing anyway, largely thanks to AI, so the nature of IT work will change and the impact of any associated gender preferences and prejudices will change with it. This will happen regardless of any involvement by Google or government but since some of the front line AI development is at Google, it’s ironic that they don’t seem to have noticed this effect themselves. If they had, their response to the recent fiasco might have highlighted how their AI R&D will help reduce the gender imbalance rather than causing the uproar they did by treating it as just a personnel issue. One conclusion must be that Google needs better futurists and their PR people need better understanding of what is going on in their own company and its obvious consequences.
As I’ve been lecturing for decades, AI up-skills people by giving them fast and intuitive access to high quality data and analysis tools. It will change all knowledge-based jobs in coming years, and will make some jobs redundant while creating others. If someone has excellent skills or enthusiasm in one area, AI can help cover over any deficiencies in the rest of their toolkit. Someone with poor emotional interaction skills can use AI emotion recognition assistance tools. Someone with poor drawing or visualization skills can make good use of natural language interaction to control computer-based drawing or visualization skills. Someone who has never written a single computer program can explain what they want to do to a smart computer and it will produce its own code, interacting with the user to eliminate any ambiguities. So whatever skills someone starts with, AI can help up-skill them in that area, while also helping to cover over any deficiencies they have, whether gender related or not.
In the longer term, IT and hence AI will connect directly to our brains, and much of our minds and memories will exist in the cloud, though it will probably not feel any different from when it was entirely inside your head. If everyone is substantially upskilled in IQ, senses and emotions, then any IQ or EQ advantages will evaporate as the premium on physical strength did when the steam engine was invented. Any pre-existing statistical gender differences in ability distribution among various skills would presumably go the same way, at least as far as any financial value is concerned.
The IT industry won’t vanish, but will gradually be ‘staffed’ more by AI and robots, with a few humans remaining for whatever few tasks linger on that are still better done by humans. My guess is that emotional skills will take a little longer to automate effectively than intellectual skills, and I still believe that women are generally better than men in emotional, human interaction skills, while it is not a myth that many men in IT score highly on the autistic spectrum. However, these skills will eventually fall within the AI skill-set too and will be optional add-ons to anyone deficient in them, so that small advantage for women will also only be temporary.
So, there may be a gender imbalance in the IT industry. I believe it is mostly due to personal career and lifestyle choices rather than discrimination but whatever its actual causes, the problem will go away soon anyway as the industry develops. Any innate psychological or neurological gender advantages that do exist will simply vanish into noise as cheap access to AI enhancement massively exceeds their impacts.
We just went through International Women’s Day and I was one of many people asked to write an essay on the above topic for a compendium of essays for the International Longevity Centre, highlighting problems faced by older women and asking if they have been forgotten by feminism.
The pdf of the whole compendium is downloadable from
At the moment of writing, it is available via Internet Explorer but not Chrome. I haven’t tested other browsers.
Women v men: the glass ceiling is full of holes
Most people I think would agree that at least in the West. the glass ceiling stopping women getting to the top maybe hasn’t vanished but has at least huge gaping holes in it. Most big companies and organisations have anti-discrimination policies, and many go as far as having have quotas and other forms of positive discrimination. There are still some where women get a second class deal, but not many now. So assuming that the war is almost won on that front, what does the future hold for women in work? Well, mixed news I think, some good and some bad.
Winner and loser industries
Technology tends not to have all its impact in one lump, rather working over decades to accomplish its full impacts. Such it is with Artificial intelligence and robotics. Lots of manufacturing shop floor jobs have already been gradually replaced by robotics, with more impact to come, and many analytical and professional tasks will gradually be displaced by AI, with many others outsourced. Traditionally male-dominated jobs are being hardest hit and will continue to be, while gender neutral or female-dominated jobs such as policing, social work, sales and marketing, teaching, nursing etc will hardly be affected. Many of the men made redundant will be able to readjust and re-skill, but many will find it hard to do so, with consequent social strains.
Just as power tools have reduced the economic advantage of being physically strong, so future AI will reduce the economic advantage of being smart. What is left is dominated by essentially emotional skills, and although the polarisation certainly isn’t complete here by any means, this is traditionally an area where women dominate.
Looking at this over the whole spectrum, this pic shows some example areas likely to suffer v those that will flourish. Obviously I can’t list every bit of the entire economy.The consequences of AI are mainly influenced by the fact that few jobs are 100% information processing or intellect. Some is usually interpersonal interaction. Administrators will find that the pen-pushing and decision parts of their jobs will decline, and they will spend more of their time on the human side, the emotional side. Professionals will find that they spend more time with clients dealing with the relationship. Managers will spend more time on motivation, leadership and nurturing. Interpersonal skills, emotional skills, empathy, sympathy, caring, leadership, motivation – these are the primary skills human will provide in the AI world. The information economy will decline and gradually be replaced by the ‘care economy’. Although men can and do offer some of the skills in this list, it is clear that many are more associated with women, so the clear conclusion is that women will acquire an increasing dominance in the workplace.
Global v local
However, another consequence of the same forces is that globalisation of work will start to reverse in some fields, because if high quality human contact is essential part of the job, it is harder to do it from a distance. Some jobs require actual physical contact and can’t be done except by someone next to the customer. Looking at a diverse basket of forces, this is how it works out:Another trend in favour of women is that with increasing restructuring or businesses around small cooperatives of complementarily skilled people, networking is an increasingly important skill.
Low pay will still be an issue
Although women will generally have an easier time than men if emotional skills dominate, the evidence today is that most such work is not highly paid, so even though women will have less difficulty in finding work, it will not be high paid work. High end interpersonal skills such as senior management will fare better, but with extensive industry restructuring, there may be less need for senior managers.
Polarisation of pay
In spite of these trend that affect the vast majority of people, star performers aren’t affected in the same way. Although the markets are already depressing wage levels for groups where there is a lot of supply available, the elite are being rewarded more and more highly, and this trend will continue. The hard facts of life are that a very few individuals make a real difference to the success or failure of a company. The superstar designer, scientist, market analyst, manager or negotiator can make a company win. Letting them go to the competition is business suicide, so they justify and demand high remuneration. Sadly, 99%of us are outside the top 1%. Think about it. There are 70 million people in the global top 1%. Even spread across every sector, and ignoring those too young or old to work, that is stiff competition.
Market gender neutrality
Especially on a large scale, the marketplace is essentially gender neutral in the sense that customers generally don’t care whether a business is run by men or women (it certainly isn’t neutral in the mix of male and female customers for particular products and services of course). The market cares about marketing, price, quality, availability and location and a few other things. Gender has little impact. Companies can’t survive on the gender make-up of their staff, only results really count in the market.
Turbulence in the market caused by rapidly changing technology, especially IT, accelerates levelling of the playing field by favouring new business models and adaptable companies and wiping out those that can’t or won’t adapt. By contributing to accelerating change, IT thus acts in accelerating the downfall of a patriarchal business environment in favour of one based purely on merit. It expedites the end of the war of women v men but when it runs to completion, women will play against men and against each other on a truly level playing field.
Women v women: attractive v plain, young v old
Now that the glass ceiling is less of an issue, the battleground is moving on to appearance discrimination, which obviously links to age too. We now often hear older or plainer women complaining that the best jobs are going to pretty young things instead of the more experienced women who sadly have left their prettier days behind, especially in high profile media and customer facing jobs.
A real world example illustrates the problem well. A while back, the BBC’s treatment of older women was ruled discriminatory by the courts because they had favoured attractive younger women to put in front of cameras over older, less attractive ones. However fair it might be, such a ruling puts the customer in conflict with the regulator. Although such a ruling may appear fair, actually all the female presenters lose, as viewers will simply swap channels to programmes hosted by presenters they want to watch. The trouble is that regulators can rule how companies must behave internally, but they can’t prevent customers from using their free choice what to buy. If some viewers prefer to watch attractive young news readers, they can and will. Those programmes hosted by less attractive ones will see a reduction in viewer numbers, and consequential drop in revenue from advertising on those programmes, or in the BBC’s case, just a drop in viewers. Unless the customer has no choice in what they watch, the courts can’t level the playing field.
It isn’t just on TV that such discrimination occurs, but throughout industry. In male dominated areas, with mostly men at the top, attractive women will be favoured at interview time, and will then tend to dominate senior posts, so that quotas can be filled but men get to choose which women fill them. In airlines, it is hard not to notice if you fly frequently, that the most attractive stewardesses end up in first and business class, with the less attractive and older ones serving the economy cabin. And on a front reception desk, bar, sales jobs, and PR, attractive women have an obvious advantage too.
It looks as if this issue is likely to dominate as we move into an economy where women as a whole have the advantage over men. And it will be much harder to legislate equality in this case.
Experience v looks & IQ
With the pension crisis growing daily, it is inevitable that people will have to work longer than today. Social skills tend to grow with age and experience in contrast with intellectual speed and agility and physical beauty, which tend to decline with age. This is a fortunate trend as it enables work to be done by older people at just the time that retirement age will have to increase.