Category Archives: Health

The future of water

 

When I started in futurology, one of the common beliefs was that future wars would be fought mainly over water supply. There are certainly some areas of the world where water-based wars could occur, but the main conflicts today are nothing to do with water at all.

Desalination used to be very expensive but new technology will reduce costs to not much more than standard fresh water sources. The discovery of graphene is a particularly important breakthrough because it allows water to go through easily but holds back impurities, even salt. Since graphene offers so many other benefits, research is proceeding enthusiastically to learn how to manufacture it in large quantities. Hot off the press today, http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/nl502399y shows that it is easily strong enough for high pressure reverse osmosis desalination. That will allow not just faster and cheaper desalination, but also cheaper and safer recycling, taking load off the system, allowing less water to go further and making it easier to get that water in the first place. Together, desalination and recycling will reduce load and improve supply sufficiently to remove the stress and potential conflicts – desalination and water purification plants will be a lot cheaper than wars. There will certainly be squabbles and political pressures applied sometimes, but I don’t see full-scale water wars as a significant threat. Technology has effectively solved this problem.

In humanitarian disasters, lack of availability of clean water is often a major problem, and many people die from diseases picked up by drinking very polluted water. http://nvireuk.wordpress.com/2012/02/14/graphene-drinking-straw/ was my own water purification idea a few years ago. (nvireuk doesn’t exist any more but the article is still visible). It isn’t designed to be an everyday replacement for a proper supply, but should work well in emergency situations.Graphene drinking straw

The absorbent material provides a smooth surface onto which to apply the graphene coating. The graphene coating filters out everything except the clean drinking water. The sponge then provides a reservoir from which to suck safe drinking water. When we get to the point that graphene can be produced cheaply and easily, this could save many lives in developing countries, in disaster zones, and even be useful to save carried weight for hikers, sailors and the military.

In the UK, we have lots of green types trying to make everyone use less water. Wasting is never a good idea, but really, we have no shortage of water here and the pressure to reduce usage is misdirected, there are plenty of real problems that need solved. We get abundant rainfall in the UK, and the only issue is cost of capture and storage against water-saving measures. It is a simple commercial trade-off, not a shortage of fresh water, most of which is allowed to go out to sea unused. There is no evidence that water companies make less profit as we save water, though they need less reservoir capacity and have lower treatment costs than otherwise, and in any case, leaks in their own system account for up to a third of the use of drinking water. The evidence is that they simply increase charges to maintain profits.

Water use for food production is likely to increase, but production will still tend to concentrate where resources are more readily available, such as prime agricultural land. Some hydroponics and vertical farms in cities will provide a small proportion of food. Meanwhile, whether there are fundamental shortages or not, better engineering will still mean lower requirements for resources than before right across industry. Where local shortages do exist, industry can simply recycle more. It is therefore hard to see any cause for concern for future water supply. There will always be local problems arising, but they can generally be solved.

In summary, there is too much panic about water in the future. We will face a lot of big problems, but water isn’t one of them.

The future of virtual reality

I first covered this topic in 1991 or 1992, can’t recall, when we were playing with the Virtuality machines. I got a bit carried away, did the calculations on processing power requirements for decent images, and announced that VR would replace TV as our main entertainment by about 2000. I still use that as my best example of things I didn’t get right.

I have often considered why it didn’t take off as we expected. There are two very plausible explanations and both might apply somewhat to the new launches we’re seeing now.

1: It did happen, just differently. People are using excellent pseudo-3D environments in computer games, and that is perfectly acceptable, they simply don’t need full-blown VR. Just as 3DTV hasn’t turned out to be very popular compared to regular TV, so wandering around a virtual world doesn’t necessarily require VR. TV or  PC monitors are perfectly adequate in conjunction with the cooperative human brain to convey the important bits of the virtual world illusion.

2. Early 1990s VR headsets reportedly gave some people eye strain or psychological distortions that persisted long enough after sessions to present potential dangers. This meant corporate lawyers would have been warning about potentially vast class action suits with every kid that develops a squint blaming the headset manufacturers, or when someone walked under a bus because they were still mentally in a virtual world. If anything, people are far more likely to sue for alleged negative psychological effects now than back then.

My enthusiasm for VR hasn’t gone away. I still think it has great potential. I just hope the manufacturers are fully aware of these issues and have dealt with or are dealing with them. It would be a great shame indeed if a successful launch is followed by rapid market collapse or class action suits. I hope they can avoid both problems.

The porn industry is already gearing up to capitalise on VR, and the more innocent computer games markets too. I spend a fair bit of my spare time in the virtual worlds of computer games. I find games far more fun than TV, and adding more convincing immersion and better graphics would be a big plus. In the further future, active skin will allow our nervous systems to be connected into the IT too, recording and replaying sensations so VR could become full sensory. When you fight an enemy in a game today, the controller might vibrate if you get hit or shot. If you could feel the pain, you might try a little harder to hide. You may be less willing to walk casually through flames if they hurt rather than just making a small drop in a health indicator or you might put a little more effort into kindling romances if you could actually enjoy the cuddles. But that’s for the next generation, not mine.

VR offers a whole new depth of experience, but it did in 1991. It failed first time, let’s hope this time the technology brings the benefits without the drawbacks and can succeed.

The future of euthanasia and suicide

Another extract from You Tomorrow, one that is very much in debate at the moment, it is an area that needs wise legislation, but I don’t have much confidence that we’ll get it. I’ll highlight some of the questions here, but since I don’t have many answers, I’ll illustrate why: they are hard questions.

Sadly, some people feel the need to end their own lives and an increasing number are asking for the legal right to assisted suicide. Euthanasia is increasingly in debate now too, with some health service practices bordering on it, some would say even crossing the boundary. Suicide and euthanasia are inextricably linked, mainly because it is impossible to know for certain what is in someone’s mind, and that is the basis of the well-known slippery slope from assisted suicide to euthanasia.

The stages of progress are reasonably clear. Is the suicide request a genuine personal decision, originating from that person’s free thoughts, based solely on their own interests? Or is it a personal decision influenced by the interests of others, real or imagined? Or is it a personal decision made after pressure from friends and relatives who want the person to die peacefully rather than suffer, with the best possible interests of the person in mind? In which case, who first raised the possibility of suicide as a potential way out? Or is it a personal decision made after pressure applied because relatives want rid of the person, perhaps over-eager to inherit or wanting to end their efforts to care for them? Guilt can be a powerful force and can be applied very subtly indeed over a period of time.

If the person is losing their ability to communicate a little, perhaps a friend or relative may help interpret their wishes to a doctor. From here, it is a matter of degree of communication skill loss and gradual increase of the part relatives play in guiding the doctor’s opinion of whether the person genuinely wants to die. Eventually, the person might not be directly consulted because their relatives can persuade a doctor that they really want to die but can’t say so effectively. Not much further along the path, people make their minds up what is in the best interests of another person as far as living or dying goes. It is a smooth path between these many small steps from genuine suicide to euthanasia. And that all ignores all the impact of possible alternatives such as pain relief, welfare, special care etc. Interestingly, the health services seem to be moving down the euthanasia route far faster than the above steps would suggest, skipping some of them and going straight to the ‘doctor knows best’ step.

Once the state starts to get involved in deciding cases, even by abdicating it to doctors, it is a long but easy road to Logan’s run, where death is compulsory at a certain age, or a certain care cost, or you’ve used up your lifetime carbon credit allocation.

There are sometimes very clear cases where someone obviously able to make up their own mind has made a thoroughly thought-through decision to end their life because of ongoing pain, poor quality of life and no hope of any cure or recovery, the only prospect being worsening condition leading to an undignified death. Some people would argue with their decision to die, others would consider that they should be permitted to do so in such clear circumstances, without any fear for their friends or relatives being prosecuted.

There are rarely razor-sharp lines between cases; situations can get blurred sometimes because of the complexity of individual lives, and because judges have their own personalities and differ slightly in their judgements. There is inevitably another case slightly further down the line that seems reasonable to a particular judge in the circumstances, and once that point is passed, and accepted by the courts, other cases with slightly less-defined circumstances can use it to help argue theirs. This is the path by which most laws evolve. They start in parliament and then after implementation, case law and a gradually changing public mind-set or even the additive effects of judges’ ideologies gradually evolve them into something quite different.

It seems likely given current trends and pressures that one day, we will accept suicide, and then we may facilitate it. Then, if we are not careful, it may evolve into euthanasia by a hundred small but apparently reasonable steps, and if we don’t stop it in time, one day we might even have a system like the one in the film ‘Logan’s Run’.

 Suicide and euthanasia are certainly gradually becoming less shocking to people, and we should expect that in the far future both will become more accepted. If you doubt that society can change its attitudes quickly, it actually only takes about 30 years to get a full reversal. Think of how long it took for homosexuality to change from condemned to fashionable, or how long abortion took from being something a woman would often be condemned for to something that is now a woman’s right to choose. Each of these took only 3 decades for a full 180 degree turnaround. Attitudes to the environment switched from mad panic about a coming ice age to mad panic about global warming in just 3 decades too, and are already switching back again towards ice age panic. If the turn in attitudes to suicide started 10 years ago, then we may have about 20 years left before it is widely accepted as a basic right that is only questioned by bigots. But social change aside, the technology will make the whole are much more interesting.

As I argued earlier, the very long term (2050 and beyond) will bring technology that allows people to link their brains to the machine world, perhaps using nanotech implants connected to each synapse to relay brain activity to a high speed neural replica hosted by a computer. This will have profound implications for suicide too. When this technology has matured, it will allow people to do wonderful things such as using machine sensors as extensions to their own capabilities. They will be able to use android bodies to move around and experience distant places and activities as if they were there in person. For people who feel compelled to end it all because of disability, pain or suffering, an alternative where they could effectively upload their mind into an android might be attractive. Their quality of life could improve dramatically at least in terms of capability. We might expect that pain and suffering could be dealt with much more effectively too if we have a direct link into the brain to control the way sensations are dealt with. So if that technology does progress as I expect, then we might see a big drop in the number of people who want to die.

But the technology options don’t stop there. If a person has a highly enhanced replica of their own brain/mind, in the machine world, people will begin to ask why they need the original. The machine world could give them greater sensory ability, greater physical ability, and greater mental ability. Smarter, with better memory, more and better senses, connected to all the world’s knowledge via the net, able effectively to wander around the world at the speed of light, and being connected directly to other people’s minds when you want, and doing so without fear of ageing, ill health of pain, this would seem a very attractive lifestyle. And it will become possible this century, at low enough cost for anyone to afford.

What of suicide then? It might not seem so important to keep the original body, especially if it is worn out or defective, so even without any pain and suffering, some people might decide to dispose of their body and carry on their lives without it. Partial suicide might become possible. Aside from any religious issues, this would be a hugely significant secular ethical issue. Updating the debate today, should people be permitted to opt out of physical existence, only keeping an electronic copy of their mind, timesharing android bodies when they need to enter the physical world? Should their families and friends be able to rebuild their loved ones electronically if they die accidentally? If so, should people be able to rebuild several versions, each representing the deceased’s different life stages, or just the final version, which may have been ill or in decline?

And then the ethical questions get even trickier. If it is possible to replicate the brain’s structure and so capture the mind, will people start to build ‘restore points’, where they make a permanent record of the state of their self at a given moment? If they get older and decide they could have run their lives better, they might be able to start again from any restore point. If the person exists in cyberspace and has disposed of their physical body, what about ownership of their estate? What about working and living in cyberspace? Will people get jobs? Will they live in virtual towns like the Sims? Indeed, in the same time frame, AI will have caught up and superseded humans in ability. Maybe Sims will get bored in their virtual worlds and want to end it all by migrating to the real world. Maybe they could swap bodies with someone coming the other way?

What will the State do when it is possible to reduce costs and environmental impact by migrating people into the virtual universe? Will it then become socially and politically acceptable, even compulsory when someone reaches a given age or costs too much for health care?

So perhaps suicide has an interesting future. It might eventually decline, and then later increase again, but in many very different forms, becoming a whole range of partial suicide options. But the scariest possibility is that people may not be able to die completely. If their body is an irrelevance, and there are many restore points from which they can be recovered, friends, family, or even the state might keep them ‘alive’ as long as they are useful. And depending on the law, they might even become a form of slave labour, their minds used for information processing or creativity whether they wish it or not. It has often truly been noted that there are worse fates than death.

Road deaths v hospital hygiene and errors

Here is a slide I just made for a road safety conference. All the figures I used came from government sources. We use the argument that a life is worth any spend, and we might be able to shave 10% off road deaths if we try hard, but we’d save 30 times more if we could reduce NHS errors and improve hygiene by just 10%.

road safety v NHS

Deterring rape and sexual assault

Since writing this a new set of stats has come out (yes, I should have predicted that):

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/focus-on-violent-crime-and-sexual-offences–2012-13/rft-table-2.xls

New technology appears all the time, but it seemed to me that some very serious problems were being under-addressed, such as rape and sexual assault. Technology obviously won’t solve them alone, but I believe it could help to some degree. However, I wanted to understand the magnitude of the problem first, so sought out the official statistics. I found it intensely frustrating task that left me angry that government is so bad at collecting proper data. So although I started this as another technology blog, it evolved and I now also discuss the statistics too, since poor quality data collection and communication on such an important issue as rape is a huge problem in itself. That isn’t a technology issue, it is one of government competence.

Anyway, the headline stats are that:

1060 rapes of women and 522 rapes of girls under 16 resulted in court convictions. A third as many attempted rapes also resulted in convictions.

14767 reports of rapes or attempted rapes (typically 25%) of females were initially recorded by the police, of which 33% were against girls under 16.

The Crime Survey for England and Wales estimates that 69000 women claim to have been subjected to rape or attempted rape.

I will discuss the stats further after I have considered how technology could help to reduce rape, the original point of the blog.

This is a highly sensitive area, and people get very upset with any discussion of rape because of its huge emotional impact. I don’t want to upset anybody by misplacing blame so let me say very clearly:

Rape or sexual assault are never a victim’s fault. There are no circumstances under which it is acceptable to take part in any sexual act with anyone against their will. If someone does so, it is entirely their fault, not the victim’s. People should not have to protect themselves but should be free to do as they wish without fear of being raped or sexually assaulted. Some people clearly don’t respect that right and rapes and sexual assaults happen. The rest of us want fewer people to be raped or assaulted and want more guilty people to be convicted. Technology can’t stop rape, and I won’t suggest that it can, but if it can help reduce someone’s chances of becoming a victim or help convict a culprit, even in just some cases, that’s progress.  I just want to do my bit to help as an engineer. Please don’t just think up reasons why a particular solution is no use in a particular case, think instead how it might help in a few. There are lots of rapes and assaults where nothing I suggest will be of any help at all. Technology can only ever be a small part of our fight against sex crime.

Let’s start with something we could easily do tomorrow, using social networking technology to alert potential victims to some dangers, deter stranger rape or help catch culprits. People encounter strangers all the time – at work, on transport, in clubs, pubs, coffee bars, shops, as well as dark alleys and tow-paths. In many of these places, we expect IT infrastructure, communications, cameras, and people with smartphones. 

Social networks often use location and some apps know who some of the people near you are. Shops are starting to use face recognition to identify regular customers and known troublemakers. Videos from building cameras are already often used to try to identify potential suspects or track their movements. Suppose in the not-very-far future, a critical mass of people carried devices that recorded the data of who was near them, throughout the day, and sent it regularly into the cloud. That device could be a special purpose device or it could just be a smartphone with an app on it. Suppose a potential victim in a club has one. They might be able to glance at an app and see a social reputation for many of the people there. They’d see that some are universally considered to be fine upstanding members of the community, even by previous partners, who thought they were nice people, just not right for them. They might see that a few others have had relationships where one or more of their previous partners had left negative feedback, which may or may not be justified. The potential victim might reasonably be more careful with the ones that have dodgy reputations, whether they’re justified or not, and even a little wary of those who don’t carry such a device. Why don’t they carry one? Surely if they were OK, they would? That’s what critical mass does. Above a certain level of adoption, it would rapidly become the norm. Like any sort of reputation, giving someone a false or unjustified rating would carry its own penalty. If you try to get back at an ex by telling lies about them, you’d quickly be identified as a liar by others, or they might sue you for libel. Even at this level, social networking can help alert some people to potential danger some of the time.

Suppose someone ends up being raped. Thanks to the collection of that data by their device (and those of others) of who was where, when, with whom, the police would more easily be able to identify some of the people the victim had encountered and some of them would be able to identify some of the others who didn’t carry such a device. The data would also help eliminate a lot of potential suspects too. Unless a rapist had planned in advance to rape, they may even have such a device with them. That might itself be a deterrent from later raping someone they’d met, because  they’d know the police would be able to find them easier. Some clubs and pubs might make it compulsory to carry one, to capitalise on the market from being known as relatively safe hangouts. Other clubs and pubs might be forced to follow suit. We could end up with a society where most of the time, potential rapists would know that their proximity to their potential victim would be known most of the time. So they might behave.

So even social networking such as we have today or could easily produce tomorrow is capable of acting as a deterrent to some people considering raping a stranger. It increases their chances of being caught, and provides some circumstantial evidence at least of their relevant movements when they are.

Smartphones are very underused as a tool to deter rape. Frequent use of social nets such as uploading photos or adding a diary entry into Facebook helps to make a picture of events leading up to a crime that may later help in inquiries. Again, that automatically creates a small deterrence by increasing the chances of being investigated. It could go a lot further though. Life-logging may use a microphone that records a continuous audio all day and a camera that records pictures when the scene changes. This already exists but is not in common use yet – frequent Facebook updates are as far as most people currently get to life-logging. Almost any phone is capable of recording audio, and can easily do so from a pocket or bag, but if a camera is to record frequent images, it really needs to be worn. That may be OK in several years if we’re all wearing video visors with built-in cameras, but in practice and for the short-term, we’re realistically stuck with just the audio.

So life-logging technology could record a lot of the events, audio and pictures leading up to an offense, and any smartphone could do at least some of this. A rapist might forcefully search and remove such devices from a victim or their bag, but by then they might already have transmitted a lot of data into the cloud, possibly even evidence of a struggle that may be used later to help convict. If not removed, it could even record audio throughout the offence, providing a good source of evidence. Smartphones also have accelerometers in them, so they could even act as a sort of black box, showing when a victim was still, walking, running, or struggling. Further, phones often have tracking apps on them, so if a rapist did steal a phone, it may show their later movements up to the point where they dumped it. Phones can also be used to issue distress calls. An emergency distress button would be easy to implement, and could transmit exact location stream audio  to the emergency services. An app could also be set up to issue a distress call automatically under specific circumstances, such at it detecting a struggle or a scream or a call for help. Finally, a lot of phones are equipped for ID purposes, and that will generally increase the proportion of people in a building whose identity is known. Someone who habitually uses their phone for such purposes could be asked to justify disabling ID or tracking services when later interviewed in connection with an offense. All of these developments will make it just a little bit harder to escape justice and that knowledge would act as a deterrent.

Overall, a smart phone, with its accelerometer, positioning, audio, image and video recording and its ability to record and transmit any such data on to cloud storage makes it into a potentially very useful black box and that surely must be a significant deterrent. From the point of view of someone falsely accused, it also could act as a valuable proof of innocence if they can show that the whole time they were together was amicable, or if indeed they were somewhere else altogether at the time. So actually, both sides of a date have an interest in using such black box smartphone technology and on a date with someone new, a sensible precautionary habit could be encouraged to enable continuous black box logging throughout a date. People might reasonably object to having a continuous recording happening during a legitimate date if they thought there was a danger it could be used by the other person to entertain their friends or uploaded on to the web later, but it could easily be implemented to protect privacy and avoiding the risk of misuse. That could be achieved by using an app that keeps the record on a database but gives nobody access to it without a court order. It would be hard to find a good reason to object to the other person protecting themselves by using such an app. With such protection and extra protection, perhaps it could become as much part of safe sex as using a condom. Imagine if women’s groups were to encourage a trend to make this sort of recording on dates the norm – no app, no fun!

These technologies would be useful primarily in deterring stranger rape or date rape. I doubt if they would help as much with rapes that are by someone the victim knows. There are a number of reasons. It’s reasonable to assume that when the victim knows the rapist, and especially if they are partners and have regular sex, it is far less likely that either would have a recording going. For example, a woman may change her mind during sex that started off consensually. If the man forces her to continue, it is very unlikely that there would be anything recorded to prove rape occurred. In an abusive or violent relationship, an abused partner might use an audio recording via a hidden device when they are concerned – an app could initiate a recording on detection of a secret keyword, or when voices are raised, even when the phone is put in a particular location or orientation. So it might be easy to hide the fact that a recording is going and it could be useful in some cases. However, the fear of being caught doing so by a violent partner might be a strong deterrent, and an abuser may well have full access to or even control of their partner’s phone, and most of all, a victim generally doesn’t know they are going to be raped. So the phone probably isn’t a very useful factor when the victim and rapist are partners or are often together in that kind of situation. However, when it is two colleagues or friends in a new kind of situation, which also accounts for a significant proportion of rapes, perhaps it is more appropriate and normal dating protocols for black box app use may more often apply. Companies could help protect employees by insisting that such a black box recording is in force when any employees are together, in or out of office hours. They could even automate it by detecting proximity of their employees’ phones.

The smartphone is already ubiquitous and everyone is familiar with installing and using apps, so any of this could be done right away. A good campaign supported by the right groups could ensure good uptake of such apps very quickly. And it needn’t be all phone-centric. A new class of device would be useful for those who feel threatened in abusive relationships. Thanks to miniaturisation, recording and transmission devices can easily be concealed in just about any everyday object, many that would be common in a handbag or bedroom drawer or on a bedside table. If abuse isn’t just a one-off event, they may offer a valuable means of providing evidence to deal with an abusive partner.

Obviously, black boxes or audio recording can’t stop someone from using force or threats, but it can provide good quality evidence, and the deterrent effect of likely being caught is a strong defence against any kind of crime. I think that is probably as far as technology can go. Self-defense weapons such as pepper sprays and rape alarms already exist, but we don’t allow use of tasers or knives or guns and similar restrictions would apply to future defence technologies. Automatically raising an alarm and getting help to the scene quickly is the only way we can reasonably expect technology to help deal with a rape that is occurring, but that makes the use of deterrence via probably detection all the more valuable. Since the technologies also help protect the innocent against false accusations, that would help in getting their social adoption.

So much for what we could do with existing technology. In a few years, we will become accustomed to having patches of electronics stuck on our skin. Active skin and even active makeup will have a lot of medical functions, but it could also include accelerometers, recording devices, pressure sensors and just about anything that uses electronics. Any part of the body can be printed with active skin or active makeup, which is then potentially part of this black box system. Invisibly small sensors in makeup, on thin membranes or even embedded among skin cells could notionally detect, measure and record any kiss, caress, squeeze or impact, even record the physical sensations experiences by recording the nerve signals. It could record pain or discomfort, along with precise timing, location, and measure many properties of the skin touching or kissing it too. It might be possible for a victim to prove exactly when a rape happened, exactly what it involved, and who was responsible. Such technology is already being researched around the world. It will take a while to develop and become widespread, but it will come.

I don’t want this to sound frivolous, but I suggested many years ago that when women get breast implants, they really ought to have at least some of the space used for useful electronics, and electronics can actually be made using silicone. A potential rapist can’t steal or deactivate a smart breast implant as easily as a phone. If a woman is going to get implants anyway, why not get ones that increase her safety by having some sort of built-in black box? We don’t have to wait a decade for the technology to do that.

The statistics show that many rapes and sexual assaults that are reported don’t result in a conviction. Some accusations may be false, and I couldn’t find any figures for that number, but lack of good evidence is one of the biggest reasons why many genuine rapes don’t result in conviction. Technology can’t stop rapes, but it can certainly help a lot to provide good quality evidence to make convictions more likely when rapes and assaults do occur.

By making people more aware of potentially risky dates, and by gathering continuous data streams when they are with someone, technology can provide an extra level of safety and a good deterrent against rape and sexual assault. That in no way implies that rape is anyone’s fault except the rapist, but with high social support, it could help make a significant drop in rape incidence and a large rise in conviction rates. I am aware that in the biggest category, the technology I suggest has the smallest benefit to offer, so we will still need to tackle rape by other means. It is only a start, but better some reduction than none.

The rest of this blog is about rape statistics, not about technology or the future. It may be of interest to some readers. Its overwhelming conclusion is that official stats are a mess and nobody has a clue how many rapes actually take place.

Summary Statistics

We hear politicians and special interest groups citing and sometimes misrepresenting wildly varying statistics all the time, and now I know why. It’s hard to know the true scale of the problem, and very easy indeed to be confused by  poor presentation of poor quality government statistics in the sexual offenses category. That is a huge issue and source of problems in itself. Although it is very much on the furthest edge of my normal brief, I spent three days trawling through the whole sexual offenses field, looking at the crime survey questionnaires, the gaping holes and inconsistencies in collected data, and the evolution of offense categories over the last decade. It is no wonder government policies and public debate are so confused when the data available is so poor. It very badly needs fixed. 

There are several stages at which some data is available outside and within the justice system. The level of credibility of a claim obviously varies at each stage as the level of evidence increases.

Outside of the justice system, someone may claim to have been raped in a self-completion module of The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), knowing that it is anonymous, nobody will query their response, no further verification will be required and there will be no consequences for anyone. There are strong personal and political reasons why people may be motivated to give false information in a survey designed to measure crime levels (in either direction), especially in those sections not done by face to face interview, and these reasons are magnified when people filling it in know that their answers will be scaled up to represent the whole population, so that already introduces a large motivational error source. However, even for a person fully intending to tell the truth in the survey, some questions are ambiguous or biased, and some are highly specific while others leave far too much scope for interpretation, leaving gaps in some areas while obsessing with others. In my view, the CSEW is badly conceived and badly implemented. In spite of unfounded government and police assurances that it gives a more accurate picture of crime than other sources, having read it, I have little more confidence in the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW)  as an indicator of actual crime levels than a casual conversation in a pub. We can be sure that some people don’t report some rapes for a variety of reasons and that in itself is a cause for concern. We don’t know how many go unreported, and the CSEW is not a reasonable indicator. We need a more reliable source.

The next stage for potential stats is that anyone may report any rape to the police, whether of themselves, a friend or colleague, witnessing a rape of a stranger, or even something they heard. The police will only record some of these initial reports as crimes, on a fairly common sense approach. According to the report, ‘the police record a crime if, on the balance of probability, the circumstances as reported amount to a crime defined by law and if there is no credible evidence to the contrary‘. 7% of these are later dropped for reasons such as errors in initial recording or retraction. However, it has recently been revealed that some forces record every crime reported whereas others record it only after it has passed the assessment above, damaging the quality of the data by mixing two different types of data together. In such an important area of crime, it is most unsatisfactory that proper statistics are not gathered in a consistent way for each stage of the criminal justice process, using the same criteria in every force.

Having recorded crimes, the police will proceed some of them through the criminal justice system.

Finally, the courts will find proven guilt in some of those cases.

I looked for the data for each of these stages, expecting to find vast numbers of table detailing everything. Perhaps they exist, and I certainly followed a number of promising routes, but most of the roads I followed ended up leading back to the CSEW and the same overview report. This joint overview report for the UK was produced by the  Ministry of Justice, Home Office and the Office for National Statistics in 2013, and it includes a range of tables with selected data from actual convictions through to results of the crime survey of England and Wales. While useful, it omits a lot of essential data that I couldn’t find anywhere else either.

The report and its tables can be accessed from:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/an-overview-of-sexual-offending-in-england—wales/december-2012/index.html

Another site gives a nice infographic on police recording, although for a different period. It is worth looking at if only to see the wonderful caveat: ‘the police figures exclude those offences which have not been reported to them’. Here it is:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-june-2013/info-sexual-offenses.html

In my view the ‘overview of sexual offending’ report mixes different qualities of data for different crimes and different victim groups in such a way as to invite confusion, distortion and misrepresentation. I’d encourage you to read it yourself if only to convince you of the need to pressure government to do it properly. Be warned, a great deal of care is required to work out exactly what and which victim group each refers to. Some figures include all people, some only females, some only women 16-59 years old. Some refer to different crime groups with similar sounding names such as sexual assault and sexual offence, some include attempts whereas others don’t. Worst of all, some very important statistics are missing, and it’s easy to assume another one refers to what you are looking for when on closer inspection, it doesn’t. However, there doesn’t appear to be a better official report available, so I had to use it. I’ve done my best to extract and qualify the headline statistics.

Taking rapes against both males and females, in 2011, 1153 people were convicted of carrying out 2294 rapes or attempted rapes, an average of 2 each. The conviction rate was 34.6% of 6630 proceeded against, from 16041 rapes or attempted rapes recorded by the police. Inexplicably, conviction figures are not broken down by victim gender, nor by rape or attempted rape. 

Police recording stats are broken down well. Of the 16041, 1274 (8%) of the rapes and attempted rapes recorded by the police were against males, while 14767 (92%) were against females. 33% of the female rapes recorded and 70% of male rapes recorded were against children (though far more girls were raped than boys). Figures are also broken down well against ethnicity and age, for offender and victim. Figures elsewhere suggested that 25% of rape attempts are unsuccessful, which combined with the 92% proportion that were rapes of females would indicate 1582 convictions for actual rape of a female, approximately 1060 women and 522 girls, but those figures only hold true if the proportions are similar through to conviction. 

Surely such a report should clearly state such an important figure as the number of rapes of a female that led to a conviction, and not leave it to readers to calculate their own estimate from pieces of data spread throughout the report. Government needs to do a lot better at gathering, categorising, analysing and reporting clear and accurate data. 

That 1582 figure for convictions is important, but it represents only the figure for rapes proven beyond reasonable doubt. Some females were raped and the culprit went unpunished. There has been a lot of recent effort to try to get a better conviction rate for rapes. Getting better evidence more frequently would certainly help get more convictions. A common perception is that many or even most rapes are unreported so the focus is often on trying to get more women to report it when they are raped. If someone knows they have good evidence, they are more likely to report a rape or assault, since one of the main reasons they don’t report it is lack of confidence that the police can do anything.

Although I don’t have much confidence in the figures from the CSEW, I’ll list them anyway. Perhaps you have greater confidence in them. The CSEW uses a sample of people, and then results are scaled up to a representation of the whole population. The CSEW (Crime Survey of England and Wales) estimates that 52000 (95% confidence level of between 39000 and 66000) women between 16 and 59 years old claim to have been victim of actual rape in the last 12 months, based on anonymous self-completion questionnaires, with 69000 (95% confidence level of between 54000 and 85000) women claiming to have been victim of attempted or actual rape in the last 12 months. 

In the same period, 22053 sexual assaults were recorded by the police. I couldn’t find any figures for convictions for sexual assaults, only for sexual offenses, which is a different, far larger category that includes indecent exposure and voyeurism. It isn’t clear why the report doesn’t include the figures for sexual assault convictions. Again, government should do better in their collection and presentation of important statistics.

The overview report also gives the stats for the number of women who said they reported a rape or attempted rape. 15% of women said they told the police, 57% said they told someone else but not the police, and 28% said they told nobody. The report does give the reasons commonly cited for not telling the police: “Based on the responses of female victims in the 2011/12 survey, the most frequently cited were that it would be ‘embarrassing’, they ‘didn’t think the police could do much to help’, that the incident was ‘too trivial/not worth reporting’, or that they saw it as a ‘private/family matter and not police business’.”

Whether you pick the 2110 convictions of rape or attempted rape against a female or the 69000 claimed in anonymous questionnaires, or anywhere in between, a lot of females are being subjected to actual and attempted rapes, and a lot victim of sexual assault. The high proportion of victims that are young children is especially alarming. Male rape is a big problem too, but the figures are a lot lower than for female rape.

Will population grow again after 2050? To 15Bn?

We’ve been told for decades now that population will level off, probably around 2050, and population after that will likely decline. The world population will peak around 2050 at about 9.5 Billion. That’s pretty much the accepted wisdom at the moment.

The reasoning is pretty straight forward and seems sound, and the evidence follows it closely. People are becoming wealthier. Wealthier people have fewer kids. If you don’t expect your kids to die from disease or starvation before they’re grown up, you don’t need to make as many.

But what if it’s based on fallacy? What if it is just plain wrong? What if the foundations of that reasoning change dramatically by 2050 and it no longer holds true? Indeed. What if?

Before I continue, let me say that my book ‘Total Sustainability’, and my various optimistic writings and blogs about population growth all agree with the view that population will level off around 2050 and then slowly decline, while food supply and resource use will improve thanks to better technologies, thereby helping us to restore the environment. If population may increase again, I and many others will have to rethink.

The reason I am concerned now is that I just made another cross-link with the trend of rising wealth, which will allow even the most basic level of welfare to be set at a high level. It is like the citizen payment that the Swiss voted on recently. I suggested it a couple of years ago myself and in my books, and am in favour of it. Everyone would receive the same monthly payment from the state whether they work or not. The taxes due would then be calculated on the total income, regardless of how you get it, and I would use a flat tax for that too. Quite simple and fair. Only wealthier people pay any tax and then according to how wealthy they are. My calculations say that by 2050, everyone in the UK could get £30,000 a year each (in today’s money) based on the typical level of growth we’ve seen in recent decades (ignoring the recession years). In some countries it would be even higher, in some less, but the cost of living is also less in many countries. In many countries welfare could be as generous as average wages are today.

So by 2050, people in many countries could have an income that allows them to survive reasonably comfortably, even without having a job. That won’t stop everyone working, but it will make it much easier for people who want to raise a family to do so without economic concerns or having to go out to work. It will become possible to live comfortably without working and raise a family.

We know that people tend to have fewer kids as they become wealthier, but there are a number of possible reasons for that. One is the better survival chances for children. That may still have an effect in the developing world, but has little effect in richer countries, so it probably won’t have any impact on future population levels in those countries. Another is the need to work to sustain the higher standard of living one has become used to, to maintain a social status and position, and the parallel reluctance to have kids that will make that more difficult. While a small number of people have kids as a means to solicit state support, but that must be tiny compared to the numbers who have fewer so that they can self sustain. Another reason is that having kids impedes personal freedom, impacts on social life and sex life and adds perhaps unwelcome responsibility. These reasons are all vulnerable to the changes caused by increasing welfare and consequential attitudes. There are probably many other reasons too. 

Working and having fewer kids allows a higher standard of living than having kids and staying at home to look after them, but most people are prepared to compromise on material quality of life to some degree to get the obvious emotional rewards of having kids. Perhaps people are having fewer kids as they get wealthier because the drop of standard of living is too high, or the risks too high. If the guaranteed basic level of survival is comfortable, there is little risk. If a lot of people choose not to work and just live on that, there will also be less social stigma in not working, and more social opportunities from having more people in the same boat. So perhaps we may reasonably deduce that making it less uncomfortable to stop work and have more kids will create a virtuous circle of more and more people having more kids.

I won’t go as far as saying that will happen, just that it might. I don’t know enough about the relative forces that make someone decide whether to have another child. It is hard to predetermine the social attitudes that will prevail in 2050 and beyond, whether people will feel encouraged or deterred from having more kids.

My key point here is that the drop in fertility we see today due to increasing wealth might only hold true up to a certain point, beyond which it reverses. It may simply be that the welfare and social floor is too low to offer a sufficient safety net for those considering having kids, so they choose not to. If the floor is raised thanks to improving prosperity, as it might well be, then population could start to rise quickly again. The assumption that population will peak at 9 or 9.5 billion and then fall might be wrong. It could rise to up to 15 billion, at which point other factors will start to reassert themselves. If our assumptions on age of death are also underestimates, it could go even higher.

Active Skin part 3 – key fields and inventions

This entry only makes sense if you read the previous two parts!

http://timeguide.wordpress.com/2014/01/08/active-skin-an-old-idea-whose-time-is-coming/

and

http://timeguide.wordpress.com/2014/01/09/active-skin-part-2-initial-applications/

if you have looked at them, time to read this one. Remember, this is onl;y a list of the ideas we had way back in 2001, I haven’t listed any we invented since.

Key active skin technology fields

Many of our original ideas had similarities, so I analysed them and produced a set of basic platforms that could be developed. The following platform components are obvious:

  1. A multilevel device architecture with some of the layers in or on the body, working in conjunction.

Tattoo layer

  1. Sub-surface imprints that monitor various body state parameters, such as chemical, electrical, temperature, and signal this information to higher layer devices.
  2. Permanently imprinted ID circuitry or patterns
  3. Permanently imprinted display components
  4. Permanently imprinted circuitry to link to nerves
  5. Imprinted devices that use chemical energy from the body to power external devices, e.g. ATP

Mid-term layer

  1. Similar technology to tattoo layer but higher in skin so therefore degradable over time
  2. Soluble or body-degradable circuitry
  3. photodegradable circuitry
  4. transparent circuitry using transparent conducting polymers
  5. inconspicuous positioning systems
  6. devices that transfer body material such as DNA or body fluids to external devices
  7. imprinted data storage devices with I/O, or permanent dumb storage
  8. imprinted sensors and recorders for radiation, magnetic fields, electrical or mechanical variation
  9. imprinted signalling devices for communication between body devices and external world
  10. smart monitoring and alarm technology that integrates body or surface events or position to external behaviours such as control systems, or surveillance systems
  11. synthetic sense systems based on synthetic sensing and translation to biological sense and possibly direct nerve stimuli
  12. smart teeth with sampling and analysis functions with signalling and storage capability
  13. imprinted actuators using piezoelectric, memory metal or ‘muscle wire’ technology, interacting with external monitoring to use as interface or feedback devices
  14. infection monitor and control devices
  15. devices that make electrical or magnetic stimuli to assist wound healing or control pain
  16. semi-permanent tags for visitors, contractors, criminals and babies, location and context dependent
  17. medical tags that directly interact with hospital equipment to control errors, hold medical records etc
  18. links to nervous system by connecting to nerves in the skin and to outside by radio

Mid-term & Transfer Layers – Smart cosmetics

  1. semi-permanent self organising displays for applications such as smart nail varnish and smart cosmetics
  2. context sensitive cosmetics, reacting to time, location, person, emotions, temperature
  3. electrically sensitive chemicals that interact with imprinted electronic circuits
  4. semi-permanent underlay for smart overlays to assist self-organisation
  5. smart sunscreens with sensors and electro-active filters
  6. colour sensitive or exposure sensitive sun-blocks
  7. cosmetics with actuators in suspension controlled by embedded electronics
  8. Active jewellery, active Bindies etc , e.g. Led optical control linked to thought recognition system
  9. Smart perfumes that respond to context, temperature, location etc

Transfer Layer

This layer has by far the most opportunities since it is not restricted to materials that can be tolerated in the body, and can also use a factory pre-printed membrane that can be transferred onto the skin. It can encompass a wide range of devices that can be miniaturised sufficiently to fit in a thin flexible package. Many currently wearable devices such as phones and computers could end up in this layer in a few years.

Most of the mid-term and some of the tattoo layer devices are also appropriate at this layer.

  1. Smart fingerprints encompass range of ID, pressure detection, interfacing and powering devices
  2. Use of vibrating membranes as signalling, e.g. ring tone, alarms, synthetic senses etc, allows personal signalling. Possible use for insect repellent if ultrasonic vibration
  3. Use of ultrasound to communicate with outside or to constantly monitor foetus
  4. Use of touch or proximity sensitive membranes to allow typing or drawing on body surface, use of skin as part of input device, may use in conjunction with smart fingerprints for keypad-free dialling etc
  5. Palm of hand can be used as computer in conjunction with smart fingerprints
  6. Use of strain gauges in smart skin allows force measurement for interfaces, force feedback, policing child abuse etc
  7. Actuators built into membrane, allows program interface and force feedback systems, drug dosing, skin tensioning etc, use for training and games, sports, immersive environments etc.
  8. Use of combinations of such devices that measure distance between them, allowing training and monitoring functions
  9. Transfer on eye allows retinal display, ultraviolet vision, eye tracking, visual interface
  10. Transfer based phones and computers
  11. Electronic jewellery
  12. Direct link between body and avatars based on variety of sensors around body and force feedback devices, connection to nervous system via midterm layer devices
  13. Thermal membranes that change conductivity on demand to control heating or cooling, also use as alarm and signalling
  14. Electronic muscles based on contracting gels, muscle wires etc, used as temporary training devices for people in recovery or physiotherapy, or for sports training
  15. Electronic stimulation devices allowing electro-acupuncture, electrolysis, itching control etc
  16. Printed aerials worn on body
  17. Permanent EEG patches for use in thought recognition and control systems
  18. Emotionally sensitive electronics, for badges, displays, context sensitivity etc
  19. Olfactory sensors for environmental monitoring linked to tongue to enhance sense of smell or taste, or for warning purposes. Olfactory data could be recorded as part of experience for memory assistance later
  20. Power supplies using induction
  21. Frequency translation in ear patch to allow supersonic hearing
  22. Devices for pets to assist in training and health monitoring, control nerves directly, police virtual electric fences for cats
  23. Fingertip mouse and 3d interface
  24. E-cash on the skin, use simply by touching a terminal

Smart drug delivery

  1. Allowing variable hole membranes for drug dosing. Body properties used with ID patch to control drug dose via smart membrane. May communicate with hospital. Off  the shelf drug containers can then be used
  2. Control of pain by linking measurement of nerve activity and emotional cues to dispensing device

Fully removable layer

This layer is occupied by relatively conventional devices. There are no obviously lucrative technologies suggested for this layer.

Key Specific inventions

Taking another angle of view, the above applications and platforms yield 28 very promising inventions. In most cases, although humans are assumed to be the users, other animals, plants, inorganic objects such as robots or other machines, and even simple dumb objects may be targets in some cases.

*Asterixes indicate reference to another area from this set.

1         Sub-skin-surface imprints and implants

Sub-skin-surface imprints and implants that monitor various body state parameters, such as chemical, electrical, temperature, and signal this information to higher layer devices.

  • Circuitry is imprinted into the skin using ink-jet technology or high pressure diffusion. e.g. a hand may be inserted into a print chamber, or a print device may be held in contact with the required area.
  • Passive components such as ink patterns may be imprinted, which may function as part of a system such as a positioning system
  • Other small encapsulated components such as skin capsules* may be injected using high pressure air bursts.
  • Some of the circuit components assembled in situ may require high temperatures for a short time, but this would cause only momentary pain.
  • Deeper implants may be injected directly into the required position using needles or intravenous injection, allowing later transport to the required location in the blood flow.
  • The implants may anchor themselves in position by mechanical or magnetic means, their positioning determined in co-operation with higher layer devices.
  • Components may be imprinted higher in the skin to be capable or wearing away, or lower in the skin to ensure relative permanence, or to give greater contact with the body
  • Circuitry may be designed to be transparent to visible light by using transparent polymers, but may be visible under UV or infrared
  • Patterns implanted may be used as part of an external system. An ink-based pattern could be used as an identifier, for holding data, or as a means of positioning. They may be used as part of a, which would effectively be enhanced biometric security system.
  • Other identifiers may be permanently imprinted, which may be active or passive such as inductive loops, bar-codes, digital paper, snowflakes etc. Intra-skin power supplies* may be used to power more sophisticated tags that can be imprinted or injected
  • Circuitry or patterns may be harmlessly biodegradable so that it would vanish over time, or may be permanent.
  • they may be made photo-degradable so that it breaks down under external light of appropriate intensity and frequency, e.g. UV
  • Inks may be used that are rewritable, e.g. they change their colour when exposed to UV or a magnetic field, so data may be modified, and these devices are therefore dynamic data storage devices. They need not operate in the visible spectrum, since external sensors are not limited by human characteristics.
  • Baby tags may be inserted to prevent babies from being abducted

2         Skin conduits

Devices may be implanted that are able to act as a conduit to lower skin layers.

  • This may facilitate drug delivery, monitoring or nerve connection.
  • Probes of various types may be inserted through the conduits for a variety of medical or interface reasons.
  • Even body fluids and DNA samples may be extracted via these conduits.
  • This may provide a means of blood transfer for transfusion or blood cleaning, and a replacement for drips
  • Conduits would be sealed to prevent bacterial or viral entry except when actively in use.
  • The conduits can be implemented in several ways: tubes may be implanted that have muscle wires arranged so that when they contract the holes flatten and thus close; the walls of the tube may be comprised of magnetic materials so can be closed magnetically; the default position may be closed and magnetic repulsion is used to stretch the holes open; similarly, muscle wire may be used to open the holes by rounding a previously flattened hole; the open or closed states can be provided by elongating or shortening a tube; heat may be used to cause expansion or contraction; synthesised muscle tissue may be used to stretch the area and make holes open; shape change and memory metals or plastics may be used. Other techniques may be possible.

3         Implanted or imprinted links to nerves

  • Permanently imprinted circuitry to link to nerves would comprise electrical connections to nerves nearby, by means of conducting wires between nerves and the devices.
  • The devices meanwhile would be in communication with the higher layers.
  • They would signal impulses to higher layers and capable of producing impulses in various patterns into the nerves.
  • The connections would be made using specialised skin capsules* or directly injected wires.
  • These devices would encapsulate very thin wires that propagate out from the device on request until they make electrical contact with a suitable nerve. They may be wound in a spiral pattern inside the capsules and unwound to form radiating wires.
  • These wires may be made of metal today or carbon fullerene ‘buckytubes’ in due course
  • They may be connected by wire, radio or optical links to the external world
  • Being able to stimulate nerves directly implies that body movement could be directly controlled by an external system
  • It would be possible to implant control devices in people or animals in order to remotely control them
  • Although primarily a military technology, this would enable pets to be sent on a predetermined walk, to prevent children from stepping out in front of a car, to prohibit many crimes that are detectable by electronic means and a wide range of other ethically dubious activities
  • Nerve stimulation can be linked extensively into other electronic systems
  • Email or other communications could include instructions that translate into nerve stimuli in the recipient. This may link to emotional stimulation too. A very rich form of intimate communication could thus be achieved.
  • It would be possible to send an orgasm by email
  • Filters can easily prevent abuse of such a system, since the user would be able to block unauthorised nerve stimulation
  • For some purposes, this choice to block stimuli could be removed by a suitable authority or similar, for policing, military and control purposes

4         Sensory enhancement and translation technique

A range of sensors may be implanted that are sensitive to various forms of radiation, EM, magnetic fields, electrical fields, nuclear radiation or heat. These would form part of an augmented sensory system.

  • Conventional technology based radiation monitors worn on a detachable layer may monitor cumulative radiation dose, or record intensity over time.
  • Other conventional technology sensors may also be worn at the detachable layer, some my be imprinted or implanted.
  • They may be connected systemically with the nervous system using implanted or imprinted nerve links* to create nerve stimuli related to sensor activity.
  • An array of synthetic senses may thus be created that would facilitate operation in a range of environments and applications. A primary market would be for sexual use, where sexual stimulation can be produced remotely directly into the nervous system.
  • Nerve stimuli could be amplified to increase sensory sensitivity.
  • Alternatively, stimuli could be translated into vibration, heat, pain, other tactile stimulus, or audio that would be picked up by the body more easily than the original form.
  • Such sensory enhancement may be used to link stimuli in different people, or to link people with real or virtual objects.
  • When connected to deep implants in the brain, this could perhaps eventually be used to implement crude telepathic communication via a network.
  • Remote control of robotics or other external machinery may be facilitated by means of linking sensory stimuli directly to machine operations or sensors. The communication would be via implanted or imprinted antennae.
  • Active teeth* may be used as part of such a system
  • Frequency shifters in the ear would permit hearing outside of normal human capability
  • Ditto visual spectrum
  • People would be able to interact fully with virtual objects using such virtual sensory stimulation

5         Alarm systems

  • Sensors in or on the skin may be used to initiate external alarms or to initiate corrective action. For example, an old person taking a shower may not realise the water temperature is too high, but the sensors could detect this and signal to the shower control system.
  • The most useful implementation of this would be one or more thermocouples or infrared sensors implanted in the skin at or near areas most likely to be exposed first to hot water such as hands or feet.
  • Thermal membranes that change conductivity according to temperature could be used as a transfer layer device.
  • Such membranes may form a part of an external alarm or control system of signal the body by other senses that a problem exists
  • As well as signalling to external systems, these sensors will use implanted or imprinted nerve links* to initiate direct local sensory stimulation by means of vibration* or pain enhancement, or produce audible warnings.
  • Alarms may also be triggered by the position of the person. A warning may be set up by interaction of the implant and external devices. A circuit in the skin can be detected by an external monitor, and warn that the person is moving into a particular area. This may be used to set off an alarm or alert either secretly or to the knowledge of the either only the person or only the external system. This can obviously be used to police criminals on parole in much the same way as existing tags, except that the technology would be less visible, and could potentially cause a sensation or even pain directly in the criminal. A virtual prison could be thus set up, with it being painful to leave the confines set by the authorities.
  • This would permit the creation of virtual electric fences for animal confinement
  • Sensors may measure force applied to the skin. This would enable policing of child care, preventing physical abuse for example. Alerts could be sent to authorities if the child is abused.

6         Skin based displays

  • Permanently imprinted display components may be developed that use the energy produced in this way to produce light or dark or even colours.
  • These may emit light but may be simply patches of colour beneath the skin surface, which would be clearly visible under normal lighting.
  • Small ink capsules that deform under pressure,
  • electrostatic or magnetic liquids, liquid crystals or light emitting or colour changing polymers would all be good candidates

7         Intra-skin power supply

  • Inductive loops and capacitors may be used to power active components that can be imprinted or injected. Inductive loops can pick up electromagnetic energy from an external transmitter that may be in the vicinity or even worn as a detachable device. Such energy can be stored in capacitors.
  • Detachable devices such as battery based power supplies may be worn that are electrically connected to devices at lower layers, either by thin wires or induction.
  • Optical power supply may be adequate and appropriate for some devices, and this again can be provided by a detachable supply via the skin, which is reasonable transparent across a wide frequency range
  • Devices that use chemical energy from the body to power external devices, e.g. ATP
  • Thermal energy may be obtained by using temperature difference between the body and the external environment. The temperature gradient within the skin itself may be insufficient for a thermocouple to produce enough voltage, so probes may be pushed further into body tissue to connect to tissue at the full body temperature. The probes would be thin wires inserted either directly through the surface, or by skin capsules*.
  • Mechanical energy may also be used, harnessing body movement using conventional kinetic power production such as used in digital watches. Devices on the feet may also be used, but may be less desirable than other conventional alternatives.
  • Thin batteries such as polymer batteries may be worn on the detachable layer
  • Solar cells may be worn on the detachable layer

8         Antennas and communicators in or on the skin

  • Some of the many devices in the layered active skin systems require communication with the outside world. Many of these require only very short distance communication, to a detachable device in contact with the skin, but others need to transmit some distance away from the body. Various implementations of communication device are possible for these purposes.
  • A vertical wire may be implemented by direct insertion into the skin, or it may be injected
  • It may be printed using conductive inks in a column through the skin
  • It may be simply inserted into a skin conduit
  • Skin capsules* may eject a length of wire
  • Wires from skin capsules may join together to make a larger aerial of variable architecture
  • This may be one, two or three dimensional
  • Skin capsules may co-operate and co-ordinate their wires so that they link together more easily in optimal designs
  • Self organising algorithms may be used to determine which of an array of skin capsules are used for this purpose.
  • Optical transmitters such as LEDs may be used to communicate in conjunction with photodiodes, CCDs or other optical signal detectors
  • Vibration may be used to communicate between devices
  • Ultrasonic transducers and detectors may be used
  • Printed aerials may be worn as transfers or detachable devices. They may be electrically connected to devices directly or via high frequency transmission across the skin, or by local radio to other smaller aerials.

9         Smart teeth & breast implants

·         Various sampling, analysis, monitoring, processing, storage, and communication facilities may be added to an artificial tooth that may be inserted in place of a crown, filling, or false tooth. Powering may be by piezoelectric means using normal chewing as a power source, or for some purposes, small batteries may be used.

·         Infection monitoring may be implemented by monitoring chemical composition locally.

·         Conventional olfactory sensing may be used

  • Breath may be monitored for chemical presence that may indicate a range of medical or hygiene conditions, including bad breath or diabetes
  • Data may be stored in the tooth that allows interaction with external devices and systems. This could be a discrete security component, or it may hold personal medical records or a personal profile for an external system.
  • Significant processing capability could be built into the volume of a tooth, so it could act as a processor for other personal electronics
  • Small cameras could be built into the tooth
  • Piezoelectric speakers could be used to make the tooth capable of audio-synthesis. This could allow some trivial novelty uses, but could later more usefully be used in conjunction with though recognition systems to allow people to talk who have lost their voice for medical reasons. Having the voice originate from the mouth would be a much more natural interface.
  • Some of these functions could be implemented in breast implants, especially data storage – mammary memory! Very significant processing capability could also be implanted easily in the volume of a breast implant. MP3 players that can be reprogrammed by radio such as bluetooth and communicate with headphones also via bluetooth. Power in batteries can be recharged using induction
  • the terms ‘mammary memory’, and ‘nipple nibbles’ (a nibble is half a byte, i.e. 4 bits) see appropriate
  • breast implant electronics may be the heart of a body IT centre
  • taste and smell sensors in the tooth may be used as part of a sensory stimulation system whereby a sense of taste or smell could be synthetically recreated in someone who has lost this sense An active skin implant in the tongue, nose or a deeper implant in the appropriate brain region may be required to recreate the sense
  • this could be used to augment the range of taste or smell for normally sensed people in order to give them a wider experience or allow them to detect potentially dangerous gases or other agents, which may be physical or virtual
  • smart teeth may also make use of light emission to enhance a smile

10     Healing assistance devices and medical tags

 

  • Medical tags or semi-permanent tags* such as inductive loops can be imprinted that allow identification and store medical records. They may interact directly with equipment. This could be used for example to prevent operation errors. More sophisticated tags could be installed using skin conduits*
  • Active skin components may be used to apply an electric field across a wound, which has been shown to accelerate healing. These would be imprinted or implanted at a health centre during treatment. Voltage can be produced by external battery or power supply, by solar cells at the detachable layer, or by thermocouples that have probes at different body depths as described above.
  • Infection monitors can be implemented using chemical analysis of the area and by measuring the electrical properties and temperature of the region
  • The infection may be controlled by emission of electrical impulses and by secreting drugs or antibiotics into the area. This may be in conjunction with a detachable drug storage device, which can inject the drugs through skin conduits*.
  • Pain can be controlled to a point by means of electrical impulses that can be provided by the implants
  • The monitors may be in communication with a health centre.
  • Electrical impulses can be used to alleviate itching, and these could be produced by active skin components
  • Electronic acupuncture can be easily implemented using active skin, with implants at various acupuncture points precisely located by a skilled practitioner, and later stimulated according to a programmed routine
  • Electrolysis to prevent hair growth may be achieved by the same means

11     Semi-permanent tags

  • Semi-permanent tags or ID patterns may be implanted in upper skin layers to allow short term electronically facilitated access to buildings. The tags are not easily removable in the short term, but will vanish over a period of time depending on the depth of penetration. They may photo-degrade, biodegrade or simply wear away with the skin over time.
  • They may communicate electronically or optically with external systems
  • They may interact as part of alarm systems*
  • They may be aware of their position by means of detecting electronic signals such as GPS, wireless LANs
  • They may be used to give accurate positioning of devices on the skin surface or deeper, thus assisting automatic operations of medical equipment, in surgery, irradiation or drug dispensing
  • Babies can be secured against mistaken identification in hospital and their tags can interact with security systems to prevent their abduction. Proximity alerts could be activated when an unauthorised person approached them.

12     Self-organising circuits and displays

  • Self-organisation of circuits has been demonstrated and is known widely.
  • Active skin components with generic re-programmable circuitry may be installed and self-organisation used to configure the devices into useful circuits.
  • Components may be printed, injected or deposited via skin conduits* and may be contained in skin capsules*
  • Organisation can be facilitated or directed by external devices that provide position and orientation information as well as instructions to the embedded components
  • Combinations of display components may be linked by wires radiating out from each component to several other components, for instance by using skin capsules*. A self-organisation algorithm can be used to determine which connections are redundant and they can be withdrawn or severed. The remaining circuitry can be used as part of a control system to convert these individual display components into a co-ordinated display.
  • These display components may alternatively be painted onto skin, lip, eyelid or nail surfaces for example, to provide a multimedia display capability in place of conventional makeup and nail varnish. These displays would be less permanent than implanted circuitry
  • This body adornment could be more functional, with informative displays built in for some medical purpose perhaps. Text warnings and alerts could indicate problems.
  • Varnish would provide a high degree of protection for the components. Varnishes could also be fabricated to chemically assist in the self-organisation, by for example, providing a crystal matrix

13     Active Context-sensitive cosmetics and medicines

  • Cosmetics today are stand-alone combinations of chemicals, dies and aromatic agents. The addition of electronically active components either to the cosmetics themselves or into the underlying skin will permit them to be made intelligent
  • Cosmetics containing active skin components that interact with other layers and the outside world
  • Electrically sensitive chemicals would be useful components for such cosmetics. Many chemicals respond to electric fields and currents by changing their chemical bonding and hence optical properties. Some magnetic fluids are known that can be manipulated by magnetic fields. Active components may also be included that can change shape and hence their appearance, that are known in the field of digital ink.
  • Such chemicals may interact with underlying active skin circuits or components, and may respond to signals from external systems or active skin components or both
  • Cosmetics may use underlying active skin to facilitate precision location and some self-organisation
  • Active actuator components may be able to physically move cosmetics around on the skin surface
  • Characteristics of the appearance may depend on time of day, or location, or on the presence or properties of other environmental characteristics.
  • Sensors detecting UV may activate sunscreen components, releasing them from containers as required
  • Sensors detecting the presence of other cosmetics allow combination effects to be co-ordinated
  • Colours may change according to context, e.g. colour change lipstick and eye shadow
  • Kaleidoscopic or chameleon makeup, that changes colour in patterns regularly
  • Perfumes may be emitted according to context or temperature. This circumvents the problem where little perfume is given off when skin is cool, and much is lost outside in wind or when it is hot. Electronic control would allow more sophisticated evaporation for more consistent effect
  • Perfumes may be constructed with variable display properties that can be put on in variable quantities, with their precise effect controlled automatically by intelligence in the makeup or active skin
  • Make-up effects may be remotely controlled
  • Make-up may include light-emitting chemicals or electronics that are co-ordinated using active skin
  • Medicines may be administered on detection of allergenic agents such as pollen or chemicals
  • Active cosmetics may include actuators to contract the skin. The actuators would be based in small skin capsules* that would send thin wires into the skin to anchor themselves, and other wires to connect to other capsules
  • Intelligence in the cosmetics might be in constant or occasional communication with the manufacturer. This permits control of the effects by the manufacturer, and the capability to offer usage based licenses, making makeup into an ongoing service rather than a single product. This is implemented by adding active skin components that together communicate with nearby network connections
  • Cosmetics may adapt in appearance depending on the presence of signals. These signals may originate from other people’s active skin or from environmental systems. People wearing such cosmetics could thus look different to different people. Also, corporate styles could be implemented , controlled by building signalling systems.
  • Cosmetics may adjust automatically to ambient light conditions and local colours, allowing automated co-ordination with clothing and furnishing
  • Cosmetics may adjust their properties as part of an emotion detection and display system. This can be used to enhance emotional conveyance or to dampen emotional signals. They may also act as part of a psychological feedback loop that permits some emotional control

14     Digital mirror

  • A digital mirror, as described on my web site, has a combination of a camera and display that can show an image that may be the true image as the user, or a modified version of the user’s image. This disclosed concept is part of a wider non-disclosed system
  • Smart cosmetics may be used in conjunction with such a digital mirror
  • The cosmetic manufacturer or a service provider may use such a digital mirror to provide the customer with an enhanced view of themselves with various options, co-ordinating the application of smart make-up by means of ‘make-up by numbers’, and controlling its precise properties after application. Active skin components that are clinic installed could be used to provide the positioning systems and intelligence for the upper layers of removable cosmetics.
  • The customer would apply a quantity of makeup and then watch as various potential makeup effects are illustrated. On selection, that effect would be implemented, though several additional effects and contexts could be selected and assigned, and appropriate context effects implemented during the day. The effects could include the mechanical removal of wrinkles by means of actuators included in smart cosmetics*. Skin-based displays* may also form part of the overall effect.
  • Medicines may be applied in a similar way under control by a clinic.
  • Cosmetics may be controlled under license so that customers do not have unlimited freedom of appearance while wearing them. They may only be seen in a limited range of appearance combinations.

15     Active and emotional jewellery

  • Active Bindies, nose studs or other facial jewellery could be used as relatively deep implants to pick up reasonably good nerve signals from the brain as part of an EEG patch system*. These may be used to control apparatus via a signal recognition system.
  • Bindi would be top layer over active skin sub-layers and could contain much more complex chip than could be implanted in active skin
  • May contain battery and be used as power supply for sub-layers
  • Sub layers pick up clean signals from around scalp and send them to bindi for processing
  • Communication between devices may be radio or at high frequency via scalp
  • Infrared or ultrasound transmitter built into bindi relays the signals directly to external apparatus
  • Processing may recognise and process in-situ, transmitting control signals or data to external apparatus
  • Bindi may change appearance or include a display that reacts according to the signals detected
  • May act as emotion conveyance device
  • Signals from sensors in or on the skin can be used to pick up emotional cues, that are often manifested in changes in blood pressure, pulse rate, blood chemistry, skin resistivity and various muscular activity, some of which is subconsciously activated.
  • Collecting and analysing such data permits a range of electronics that responds to emotional activity. The active bind is just one piece of jewellery that may be useful in this regard, and is limited by culture.
  • Other forms of emotional jewellery may use displays or LEDs to indicate the wearer’s emotional state. Almost any form of jewellery could be used as part of this system, since active skin components that collect the data do not have to be in physical contact with the display devices
  • Active skin displays* may form part of this emotional display system
  • Active jewellery may also display data from other systems such as external computers or communication devices. This communication may be via active skin communication systems
  • Displays around the body may co-ordinate their overall effect via active skin devices
  • Emotions in groups of people may be linked together forming ‘emotilinks’ across the network, linking sensors, actuators, drug delivery systems and nerve stimulation together in emotion management systems. Drug delivery systems may instead dispense hormones
  • These systems may be linked into other electronic systems
  • Emotional messages may be sent that electronically trigger emotions in the recipient according to the intentions or emotions of the sender. Emotional email or voice messaging results. This enhances the capability and reach of communications dramatically.
  • Active jewellery such as a smart signet ring could be used as part of an authentication or security system, that may involve biometrics at any active skin layer as well as conventional electronic components and data that may also be housed in active skin

16     Active fingerprints

  • Active skin in the finger tip would greatly enhance interfacing to security systems and also to computer system interfaces, which can be made much more tactile
  • Smart fingerprints may include chips, passive ID, pressure indication, pressure transducers, vibration devices, interface and powering devices
  • Patterns and circuits built into the fingertips can link directly with external equipment by touch
  • Inductive loop in finger tip makes for simple ID system
  • Electronic signals can be conveyed in each direction for identification or programming or data transfer via contacts in the skin
  • A persons personal profile may be downloaded to an external system from data in the skin via such contacts. A computer can thus adapt instantly to the person using it
  • Data may be similarly ‘sucked up’ into body based storage via such contacts
  • Other devices elsewhere on the skin may be temporarily connected via high frequency transmission through the skin to the external system
  • Patterns visible in infrared or UV regions may be used
  • Ultrasonic vibrations may be used
  • Synthetic textures may be produced by keys by means of producing different vibration patterns than material would normally produce. This would assist greatly in the use of virtual environments to create synthetic objects
  • Actuators based on for example muscle wire can be used to stretch the skin in various directions, which conveys much information to the body on texture and other feedback. This can be by means of a rectangular wire with muscle wire between two opposite corners
  • Heat and cold can be produced as a feedback mechanism
  • Positioning systems incorporating the fingertips by means of inductive loop tracking, motion detectors and dead reckoning systems, allow interaction with virtual objects.
  • People could type in air, and feel physical feedback on interaction with objects, particularly useful in surgery using robotic tools.
  • Active skin with muscle wires implanted or imprinted at finger joints give a force feedback mechanism
  • Links between people may be formed by linking sensors in one person’s joints to actuators in another person’s. This would be useful for training purposes.
  • Vibrating membranes may be used as a signalling device. Vibration can be implemented via muscle wires or piezoelectric crystals in the detachable layer. These would allow personal signalling systems, ringing vibration, and development of synthetic senses*.
  • They may have some use in insect repellence if vibrations are ultrasonic
  • Micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMs) implanted in the fingertips would allow a fingertip to be used as a mouse for a computer, by tracking movement accurately
  • Fingertip sensors could similarly be used to capture textures for re-use in virtual environment applications
  • Textures can be recreated in the fingertips by means of vibration devices
  • Electronic cash could be transferred through active fingerprints which also contain the authentication mechanisms as well as the means to transfer the cash
  • Short term software licenses could be implemented in this way, with the fingertip effectively holding a dongle

17     Ultrasonic monitors

  • An array of active skin devices may be arranged around the abdominal region of a pregnant woman, that would allow easy periodic ultrasonic monitoring of the baby during pregnancy.
  • Some patches of active skin would house ultrasound generators, and others would house ultrasound receivers. The system is therefore capable of bathing the baby in a well defined ultrasound field for monitoring purposes.
  • The patterns of reflections can be analysed by either processors in active skin or by a remote device, either worn or via the network, e.g. at a clinic. This produces images of the baby that can determine whether there is a problem. For instance, heartbeat and baby movements can easily be monitored.
  • Growth of cancers may be monitored in much the same way, with alerts automatically sent to hospital via the network if tumour size or growth rate exceeds a defined limit
  • A simple microphone may be sufficient for just heartbeat monitoring if that is all that is needed.
  • Ultrasonic communication to an external systems or another active skin device nearby.

18     Touch and proximity sensitive membranes

  • A region of active skin on the arm may be used as a data entry device such as a keyboard by means of adding positioning information such as digital paper patterns or other indication of location.
  • A simple circuit completion would suffice that could be implemented by contacts in close proximity that are connected when pressed, or by a sudden change in resistance or capacitance
  • Arm-embedded components can interact with active fingerprint components to enable easy data entry. Data may be transferred between arm and finger components
  • Different components in different fingers increase dramatically the range of combinations available. Different fingers may represent different tools in a drawing package for example
  • Visible patterns on the arm could indicate where the letters or other keys are. This indication could be a simple ink pattern.
  • Alternatively, display components in the skin may be used to create a dynamic keyboard or interface with different inputs according to application
  • Alternatively, a virtual display in a head-up display worn by the user could indicate the position of the appropriate keys without any visible pattern on the skin. Positioning may be by means of image analysis or by means of processing of the inputs from various inbuilt strain gauges
  • With a virtual display, no components at all are actually required in the arm to implement the minimal system (similar systems already exist with purely virtual keyboards).
  • Deeper ink patterns could enable a longer term keyboard
  • Data from the interface can be stored locally in memory implants or relayed at high frequency across the skin to other active skin system components
  • This could be used as a dialling keypad for cellphones
  • It may be used to enter security identification codes
  • A keyboard may be implanted in the palm of the hand as an alternative to the forearm to allow a computer to be effectively a ‘palm computer’, a ‘digital computer’, calculator or
  • interface to any electronic device carried on the person or across the network
  • signals from the interface may be relayed by a radio device elsewhere on the body

19     Use of strain gauges for touch sensitivity

  • A high degree of touch sensitivity is afforded by the body’s own sensory system, so this could act as a very high precision interface for some applications. The amount of pressure, or characteristics of strokes may be easily detected by the wearer to accurately control their input. Detection of this input can be by means of strain or relative position sensors
  • Alternatively, in later generations of the devices, signals may be directly picked up from the nervous system and appropriate analysis used to determine the precise input.
  • Touch or proximity sensors such as capacitors, inductors, piezoelectric strain gauges, movement detectors, or other devices in the arm can detect key-presses or drawing movements and could act as a mousepad
  • Relative movement between active skin components in touch sensitive membranes indicates not only what has been pressed but also by how much
  • Movement may be measured by change of capacitance between components, or change of resistance in conductive polymers attached to the skin, by induction changes, change of skin resistance itself, accumulated mechanical stress measurement or by other means
  • A system comprised of a range of such gauges and position sensors in various parts of the body may be used to gather a great deal of data about the movement of the body.
  • This may be used extensively in training and correction applications by means of force feedback or sensory amplification.
  • Force feedback or other actuator components* would give a signal or apply a force back to the body on detection of various parameter values. Movements may be precisely recorded and recreated via force feedback.
  • An expert recording the correct procedure can use such recording and force feedback to ‘play back’ a correct movement into the student. Repeated practice of the correct movement would enable rapid training
  • Computer games may also make use of this system in a ‘training mode’, where users learn to behave appropriately, thus improving the quality of game play
  • Highly specialised interfaces may be developed using a collection of appropriately configured gauges or sensors, with appropriate force of signal feedback devices
  • Such systems may be used to record the behaviour of people or animals for research, monitoring or policing purposes
  • Signal feedback systems may allow direct correction of such behaviours. See alarm systems.
  • The means to directly associate a movement or behaviour with pain would be a valuable means of training and controlling animals or criminals. Such feedback may also be linked to emotional states to control aggression for example. A combination of movements, position or emotional state may be used to prohibit certain behaviours in certain locations.
  • Strain gauges would be an important component of avatar based communication systems to allow the direct physical interaction of people across a network, whether a handshake or a hug or something more.

20     Force feedback and other actuators in skin

 

  • A range of actuators may be implanted or injected for various purposes
  • Muscle wires may be used as simple actuators
  • Some polymer gels may be made to respond mechanically to various stimuli. These may be used as synthetic muscles in some systems and membranes composed of these may be key active skin components
  • Membranes with arrays of holes may be used to control drug delivery as part of an active skin system. Such membranes may be dumb, or may contract in response to electronic or thermal stimuli from other components. Obviously holes will contract as the membrane contracts, thereby giving a means of controlling drug dosing
  • Such membranes may provide a convenient means of allowing blood exchange for blood cleaning and processing (e.g. for dialysis)
  • Ultrasonic actuators may be used or signalling between devices
  • Lower frequency may be used to create sensation of texture
  • Stretching, compression and torsion may be used in force feedback and signalling
  • Actuators may be used to open or close holes in the skin or activate skin conduits*
  • These holes may be used usefully as part of drug delivery systems or as a means of implanting devices or other materials
  • They may be used extensively as part of force feedback and interface devices as described above for training, communication, monitoring or corrective purposes
  • Systems using combinations of such force feedback and actuators may be used for medical purposes
  • Holes with actuators mounted across them may be opened or closed on command
  • These work in conjunction with higher layers to allow smart and precise drug delivery in a feedback loop with monitoring systems. Health or nerve signal monitors may allow direct control of such holes and actuators in drug dispensers
  • Actuators may respond directly to skin temperature
  • Actuators may form part of alarm systems
  • Exoskeletal structures based on actuators may be implemented to give physical assistance or support, especially for disabled or frail people. This would require large areas of such actuator membranes
  • Physical appearance may be controlled to a degree by such membranes or implants, that would shape the body, reduce wrinkles, reduce the impact of fat, tone muscles etc
  • They may work in conjunction with electrical stimuli for muscle toning, which currently needs external pads and power supplies

21     Active contact lens

  • Active contact lens has been wholly disclosed in the form of a removable contact lens that acts as a dumb display
  • It could however be differently realised by using active skin instead of a detachable contact lens
  • Active contact lens may include actuator components that stretch or compress the eye to correct vision for all distances
  • Lens components could be implanted in eye surface using above techniques
  • Signals displayed may originate in other active skin components elsewhere on body
  • Processing may be embedded in nearby skin outside the eye
  • Powering could be inductive or ultrasonic
  • Tracking of the eyeball can be in conjunction with other nearby components such as proximity and position detectors
  • Light may be produced externally (e.g. by lasers adjacent to the eyeball) and the lens merely reflects it to its proper destination by means of micromirrors
  • Lens film may contain identification circuitry or data that can be conveyed to an external system by passive recognition or active transmission
  • Images seen by the eye may be processed and recorded by nearby active skin components and relayed to storage or transmitted on a network
  • Appropriate implanted dyes could facilitate ultraviolet vision
  • Appropriate infrared detectors and lasers may be used to enable infrared vision
  • Other sensory data from sensors elsewhere on the skin or fully externally, may be projected in the image produced by the active skin implant

22     Skin-based processing, memory, and consumer electronics

 

  • Miniaturised circuitry will soon allow very small versions of many popular devices.
  • These circuits may fit in a single skin capsule or be distributed across several capsules.
  • These capsules contain means to connect with others and with the outside as well as housing some electronics capability
  • They will be able to produce phones, calculators, computers, storage devices, MP3 players, identifiers, electronic cash, text readers, scanners
  • Some of these would benefit from being implemented in active fingerprint systems
  • Capsules may be directly injected or inserted into a skin conduit, perhaps facilitated by various actuators for positioning and connection
  • They may be easily ejected by the skin conduits if necessary
  • Ingestion or ejection may be by means of peristaltic motion of the skin conduit, facilitated by means of contractible rings
  • A wide range of sensors are now available in watches and other small wearable devices, to monitor parameters such as air and skin temperature, air pressure, direction, blood pressure, pulse, heart beat, walking distance, GPS location and navigation, paging, infrared controls, voice recording and others. Many of these can be sufficiently miniaturised to be embedded in or on one or more active skin layers. The performance of some of the sensors would be improved
  • Membrane based transfers implementing these devices may be easily attached to the skin and easily removed if required. They may co-operate with other permanent or temporary active skin devices
  • Transfer based electronic jewellery* may interact with smart cosmetics* and other inbuilt processing or memory

23     Body-avatar link

  • Avatars will be an important communication tool in the near future. Avatars may be controlled manually or via video image interpretation, which is complex and invasive. Active skin presents an efficient means of accurately controlling avatars.
  • Sensors in skin at key parts of the body, e.g. finger joints, hands, wrists, elbows and face can be used to detect body movement and position.
  • They may also detect emotional state and audio
  • Data from the sensors may be transmitted to a central body transmitter for collation, pre-processing or simply transmission
  • This information is relayed via active skin or other transmitters to a computer, phone or other conferencing device. The phone may itself be an active skin component
  • The body position and movement information is transmitted across the link, and used to control the avatar movements directly
  • Interactions between avatars in virtual space are relayed back to the people involved via force feedback membranes, pressure transducers, smart fingerprints to convey texture, and direct nerve stimulation using nerve links.
  • A highly sensory realistic communications link is thus established between the inhabitants of the virtual environment which is potentially far richer than that which may be obtained without the use of active skin or a full body suit.
  • Inhabitants need not be real people, but may be synthetic entities such as computer game characters or interactive TV avatars
  • Almost all functions of body suits may be replaced by active skin components, which do not interfere with normal clothing and are therefore much less invasive
  • If all the above components are implemented in active skin, it is possible that avatars may be controlled without the knowledge of anyone else present, making a very discrete interface
  • Instead of controlling avatars, the link may be used to directly control a robot. Sensors in the robot could be linked to senses in the human, allowing a high quality implementation of telepresence and teleaction. This would be very useful for surgery or for maintenance in hostile environments. It would also be useful for police or military use to control robots or androids in hostile environments.
  • Surgical applications could be enhanced by filtering and pre-processing the body movements and possible translating them into a appropriate actions for robotic surgical apparatus. For example, large jerky hand movements may be converted into small smoother scalpel movements.
  • Again, such systems may be used extensively for training or correction purposes, or for interaction with computer games
  • Interactive TV may use such avatar links to permit greater participation of remote audience members
  • Visual systems may be linked to such active skin avatar links so that people can interact with avatars on the move rather than just when confined to a conferencing suite or in front of a computer monitor
  • This permits people to interact fully with virtual objects and characters overlaid in the real environment

24     EEG patches

 

  • An array of smart skin patches on the scalp could be arranged to collect electrical signals from the brain.
  • Such devices could make it less invasive for EEG patients who need repeated investigation
  • Devices would signal using high frequency electrical signals or by ultrasound to other sensors or collectors or processors.
  • Signals could be relayed to external apparatus by a single contact point or by means of radio aerials, LEDs or an active bindi.
  • Such signals may be used for conventional medical analysis purposes,
  • or may be used for thought recognition purposes, whereby pattern recognition technology is applied to analysis of the signals from the various sensors.
  • Sensors need not only be on the scalp, but could be anywhere on the body, such as fingertips.
  • Lie detection may be implemented using a combination of data regarding such brain signals and other data regarding emotional state, blood hormone or other chemical content, skin conductivity, temperature, pulse etc All of these data types are liable to address by active skin variants
  • Signals from the scalp may be used to control medical prostheses to assist disabled people. The intention to move an arm could result in the arm moving for example. Nerve signals for such applications may be detected on the scalp, or nearer to the prosthesis.
  • Active skin in the stump could be used for this purpose and also to inject synthetic senses back into the nervous system by way of feedback from the prosthesis
  • Such patches may be used as a component of a policing system for criminals, whereupon certain types of thought pattern result in the creation of pain

25     Use with or in place of active clothing

 

Many of the applications discussed above would work well in harmony with active clothing, most of which is known technology. Active clothing already houses consumer electronics, reacts thermally and optically to the environment, monitors body activity, reports on injuries and casualty location, injects antibiotics, antiseptics and anaesthetics in case of battlefield injury. A wide variety of other ‘smart’ capabilities is also available off the shelf or in prototype.

Some of these clothes require data that can best be obtained by active skin. For example:

  • Active skin can house the identity and personal profile for use by active clothing
  • Active clothing may provide the power supply or communications for active skin
  • Active clothing may contain medical apparatus that is controlled in conjunction with active skin and a remote clinic
  • Active skin may actually replace some clothing in terms of thermal and chemical protection
  • Active skin may act as a final line of defence on a battlefield by filtering out hostile bacteria, viruses or chemicals and in due course act to protect against nanotechnology or micro-technology attack
  • Active skin may physically repair organic skin tissues or augment them with self-organising self-constructing membranes
  • Active skin may contain synthetic hairs that may be extended or contracted to provide variable thermal protection, and also to help filter out bacteria
  • With a high degree of such protection against nature, clothing may be more optional, especially if active inks and other display components are used to change the optical appearance of the body for cultural reasons
  • Key active skin components of this system are displays, actuators, sensors, reservoirs, membranes, processors, signalling and aerials

26     Skin capsules

  • A range of skin capsules for various purposes may be developed, which are capable of being injected into the skin by high pressure air, or inserted through skin conduits
  • Skin conduits themselves may be implanted as a special case of skin capsules. They may start off as a spherical device and then open up into a ‘pore’ once implanted
  • Skin capsules may contain drugs or other chemicals for various purposes
  • They may house substantial quantities of electronics for processing, memory, analysis or sensory purposes
  • They may house MEM devices that are capable of mechanical interaction with surrounding tissues
  • They may house a range of actuator devices or wires
  • They may house wires for the purpose of connection to nearby capsules or devices, for example to make antennas
  • They may house identification devices or data
  • These wires may be metallic, organic polymer, shape memory alloy, memory plastic, or buckminster fullerene tubes
  • Capsules may be made of any materials that is largely inert regarding body tissues. Titanium and its alloys, glass and ceramics, diamond film coated materials, gold, platinum and surgical steel and many plastics, as well as some biodegradable and soluble materials etc would be good for some purposes, but other materials may be better for some purposes

27     Drug delivery system

  • Drugs may be administered under control by means of active skin systems
  • Membranes may be contracted so that the holes shrink and drugs cannot permeate as quickly through the membrane
  • Blood chemistry may be analysed by active skin lower layers to detect the amount of drugs needed in order to control such membranes. They can also monitor the rate of diffusion of the drug into the bloodstream
  • Clinics can communicate via the network with such systems and active skin devices react to such communication to effect drug delivery under remote supervision, while sensors in the body transmit their information via aerials to the clinic
  • Membranes may be made to react to environmental conditions such as pollen content. These can then form part of the sensory array as well as permitting appropriate diffusion of anti-allergy drugs
  • Drugs may be contained in external reservoirs or in skin capsules* or in patches e.g. nicotine patches. The rates of diffusion may be altered by means of active membranes or via skin conduits.

28     Animal husbandry technology

  • Active skin drug delivery systems* may be used extensively on farm livestock to control drugs use on a wide scale
  • Captured wild animals may be tagged and fitted with such systems to control their reproduction or behaviours, or to protect them against diseases
  • Active skin tags may be used to track and monitor the behaviour of such animals
  • Sensory stimulation and translation devices may be used to train animals for certain tasks
  • This may also be used in conjunction with control systems to automatically steer or co-ordinate groups of animals
  • Sensory systems in individual animals may be linked together with others, not necessarily of the same species, to make super-sensory collections of animals with unusual properties
  • Robotic animals may be able to interface with real ones by manipulating their sensory inputs
  • Drug development may be enhanced by gaining extra feedback via active skin technology on the condition of animals being experimented upon

Active Skin part 2: initial applications

When I had the active skin idea, it was obvious that there would be a lot of applications so I dragged the others from the office into a brainstorm to determine the scope of this concept. These are the original ideas from that 2001 brainstorm and the following days as I wrote them up, so don’t expect this to be an updated 2014 list, I might do that another time. Some of these have been developed at least in part by other companies in the years since, and many more are becoming more obvious as applications now that the technology foundations are catching up. I have a couple more parts of this to publish, with some more ideas. I’ve loosely listed them here in sections according to layer, but some of the devices may function at two or more different layers. I won’t repeat them, so it should be assumed that any of these could be appropriate to more than one layer. You’ll notice we didn’t bother with the wearables layer since even in 2001 wearable computing was already a well-established field in IT labs, with lots of ideas already. Slide2 Smart tattoos layer This layer is produced by deep printing well into the skin, possibly using similar means to that for tattooing. Some devices could be implanted by means of water or air pressure injection Slide10 Slide11 Slide6

  1. Display capability leading to static or multimedia display instead of static ink
  2. Use for multimedia body adornment, context dependent tattoos, tribalism
  3. monitor body chemicals for clues to emotional, hormonal or health state
  4. Measurement of blood composition to assist in drug dosing
  5. monitor nerve signals
  6. tattoos that show body’s medical state or other parameters
  7. health monitor displays, e.g.  blood insulin level, warning displays, instructions and recommendations on what actions to take
  8. show emotional state, emoticons shown according to biochemical or electrical cues
  9. may convert information on body’s state into other stimuli, such as heat or vibration
  10. may do same from external stimuli
  11. devices in different people could be linked in this way, forming emotilinks. Groups of people could be linked. People belonging to several such groups might have different signalling or position for each group.
  12. Identification, non-erasable, much less invasive than having an implant for the same purpose so would not have the same public objection. This could be electronic, or as simple as ultraviolet ink in a machine readable form such as barcode, snowflake etc
  13. Power supply for external devices using body’s energy supply, e.g. ATP
  14. Metallic ear implants on ear drum as hearing aid – electrostatic or magnetically driven
  15. Electronic signet ring, electronics that will only function when held by the rightful user
  16. Electronic signature devices

Mid-term layer Slide8 Slide9 Slide7Slide5 These components could be imprinted by printing onto the skin surface. Some could be implemented by adsorption from transfers, others by mechanical injection.

  1. Access technology – temporary access to buildings or theme parks. Rather than a simple stamp, people could have a smarter ID device printed into their skin
  2. The device could monitor where the wearer goes and for how long
  3. It could interact with monitoring equipment in buildings or equipment
  4. The device might include the use of invisible active inks on smart membrane
  5. Components could be made soluble to wash off easily, or more permanent
  6. Components could be photodegradable
  7. Could use ultraviolet inks that may be read by either external devices or other components
  8. Like smart tattoo ID systems, they could use snowflakes, colour snowflakes, barcodes or ‘digital paper’, to give a ‘digital skin’ functionality
  9. This could interact with ‘digital air’ devices
  10. Could be used to co-ordinate external device positioning accurately for medical reasons, e.g. acupuncture, TENS etc.
  11. Ultra-smart finger prints, wide range of functions based on interaction with computers and external devices, other smart skin systems, or digital paper
  12. Outputs DNA or DNA code to external reader for ID or medical reasons
  13. Combine with smart tags to achieve complex management and control systems, e.g. in package handling, product assembly
  14. SOS talismans, full health record built into body, including blood groups, tissue groups etc
  15. Degradable radiation monitors that can be positioned at key body points for more accurate dose measurement
  16. Could signal between such devices to a central display via the skin
  17. Devices might communicate using ad-hoc networks, could be used as a distributed antenna for external communication
  18. Thermometers & alarms. Use to measure heat for alarms for old people with degraded senses
  19. Directly interact with smart showers to prevent scalding
  20. Could monitor peoples behaviour for behaviour based alarms, e.g. fall alarms
  21. Overlay synthetic nervous system, use for medical prostheses, bionics or external interfacing
  22. Synthesised senses, making us sensitive to stimuli outside our biological capability
  23. Smart teeth, checks food for presence of bacteria or toxins
  24. Monitor breath for bad odours or illness
  25. Diabetic supervision, monitor ketones
  26. Monitor diet and link to smart devices in the home or hospital to police diet
  27. Modify taste by directly stimulating nerves in the tongue? Probably not feasible
  28. Calorie counting
  29. Smile enhancement, using light emission or fluorescence
  30. Smile training, e.g. tactile feedback on mouth position after operation
  31. Operation scar monitoring, patch across wound could monitor structural integrity,
  32. infection monitor based on detecting presence of harmful bacteria, or characteristics of surrounding skin affected by infection
  33. semi-permanent nail varnish with variable colour
  34. context sensitive nail varnish
  35. multimedia nail varnish
  36. Baby tagging for security purposes & wide range of medical applications such as breathing monitoring, temperature, movement etc
  37. Operation tagging to prevent mistakes, direct interaction with electronic equipment in theatre
  38. ITU applications
  39. Active alarms, integrated into external devices, directly initiate action
  40. Position based sensors and alarms
  41. Personality badge

Transfer layer This layer could use printing techniques straight onto the skin surface, or use transfers. A thin transfer membrane may stay in place for the duration of the required functionality, but could be removed relatively easily if necessary. It is envisaged that this membrane would be a thin polymer that acts as a carrier for the components as well as potentially shielding them from direct contact with the body or from the outside world. It could last for up to several days.

  1. Tactile interfaces – vibration membranes that convey texture or simple vibration
  2. Tactile stimuli as a means for alarms, coupled with heat, cold, or radiation sensors
  3. Text to Braille translation without need for external devices, using actuators in fingertip pads
  4. Use for navigation based on external magnetic field measurement, GPS or other positioning systems, translated into sensory stimuli
  5. Measurement and possible recording of force
  6. use to police child abuse, or other handling in the workplace as safety precautions. Could link to alarms
  7. motion detection, using kinetic or magnetic detection for use in sports or medical systems
  8. actuators built into transfers could give force feedback.
  9. Could directly link to nerve stimulation via lower layers to accomplish full neural feedback
  10. combine sensor and actuators to directly control avatars in cyberspace and for computer interfacing feedback
  11. interfaces for games
  12. short duration software licenses for evaluation purposes, needs fragile transfer so limits use to single user for lifetime of transfer
  13. sensors on eyes allow eye tracking
  14. direct retinal display, active contact lens replacement
  15. UV phosphors allow ultraviolet vision
  16. Actuators or tensioning devices could control wrinkles
  17. could assist in training for sports
  18. training for typing, playing music, music composition, virtual instruments
  19. keypad-free dialling
  20. air typing, drawing, sculpting
  21. type on arm using finger and arm patches
  22. finger snap control
  23. active sign languages
  24. ‘palm pilot’, computer on hand
  25. digital computer, count on fingers
  26. generic 3D interface
  27. use with transfer phone
  28. education use to explore surfaces of virtual objects in virtual environments
  29. use for teletravel navigation, or use in dangerous environments for controlling robotics
  30. direct nervous system links
  31. could assist in body language in conjunction with emotion sensors for socially disadvantaged people
  32. could act as signalling device in place of phone ring or audible alarms (actuator is not necessarily piezoelectric vibrator)
  33. doorbell on skin, personal doorbell, only alerts person of relevance
  34. active sunscreen using electrical stimuli to change sun-block cream to block UV when UV dose is reached
  35. could electrically alter heat radiation properties to enhance heating or cooling of body
  36. membranes with smart holes allow just the right amount of drug delivery in conjunction with smart tattoos. May use lower layers to accurately position and record dosing data
  37. Could use heat, cold, vibration as signals between people
  38. Electronic muscles – use polymer gel or memory metal or contracting wires
  39. Ultrasonic communication between devices and outside world
  40. Teledildonic applications
  41. Oscillating magnetic patches for medical reasons
  42. Applies voltage across wound to assist healing
  43. Smart Nicotine or antibiotic patches
  44. Painkilling patches using pain measurement (nerve activity) and directly controlling using electric stimuli, or administering drugs
  45. Placebo device patches
  46. Multimedia cosmetics
  47. Smart cosmetics, with actuators, smart tattoos that are removable
  48. Self organising cosmetic circuits, sensor, smart chemicals and actuator matrices
  49. Continuous electrolysis as hair growth limiter
  50. Electro-acupuncture with accurate positioning
  51. Control of itching to allow more rapid recovery
  52. Baby-care anti-scratch patches
  53. Printed aerials on body for device communication
  54. Detect, record, process and transmit nerve signals
  55. EEG use
  56. Thought control of devices
  57. Invisible scalp sensors for thought collection
  58. Emotion badge
  59. Truth badge, using body cues to convey whether lying or not. Could be unknown to wearer, transmitting by radio or ultrasound or in UV
  60. Context sensitive perfumes, emotionally sensitive perfumes
  61. Inverse heat sensitive perfumes, prevent too much being given off when warm
  62. Smell sensitive deodorant, or temperature dependent
  63. Context sensitive makeup, that behaves differently with different people at different situations or times
  64. Colour sensitive sun-block, protects more on fairer skin
  65. Active Bindies (dots on Indian women foreheads)
  66. Active jewellery
  67. Power generation for wearable electrical devices, using body heat, solar power, kinetics or skin contraction
  68. Microphones
  69. Frequency translation to allow hearing out of normal audible spectrum
  70. Bugs – unspecified functions in devices
  71. Mosquito killers, zapping insects with charge, or deterring with ultrasound or electrical signals
  72. Automatic antiseptic injections
  73. Use on animals for medical and pest control purposes
  74. Pet signalling and training
  75. Pet homing
  76. Pet ID systems
  77. Jam nerves
  78. Muscle toning
  79. Image capture, compound eyes, raster scan with micro-mirror and transverse lens
  80. Phones, watches, diaries etc
  81. Chameleon, cuttlefish pattern novelties
  82. Orifice monitoring
  83. Transfer body suit, self-organising polymer coating. Use for sports etc.
  84. Position-based devices
  85. Morse code devices for children’s communications
  86. Movement to voice translation – guidance for blind people or use for everyday navigation, sports feedback
  87. Strain alarms
  88. Use with smart drugs
  89. Smell as ring tone
  90. Smell as alarm
  91. Smell for emotion conveyance
  92. Snap fingers to switch lights on
  93. Tactile interfaces
  94. Emotional audio-video capture
  95. record on body condition
  96. wires on skin as addition to MIT bodynet
  97. tension control devices to assist wound healing
  98. avatar mimicry, electronically control ones appearance
  99. electronic paint-by numbers

100.means to charge up other devices by linking to external electrical device or by induction 101.devices that can read ultraviolet ink on sub layer 102.finger mouse, using fingertip sensors instead of mouse, can be used in 3D with appropriate technology base 103.Use of combinations of patches to monitor relative movements of body parts for use in training and medical treatments. Could communicate using infrared, radio or ultrasound 104.Use of an all-over skin that acts as a protective film so that each device doesn’t have to be dermatologically tested. Unlikely to be full body but could cover some key areas. E.g. some people are allergic to Elastoplast, so could have their more vulnerable areas covered. 105.Strain gauges on stomach warning of overeating 106.Strain gauge based posture alarms on the neck, back and shoulders etc 107.Breathalysers in smart teeth alert drivers to being over the limit and interact directly with car immobilisers 108.Pedometers and weight sensors built into feet to monitor exercise etc 109.Battlefield management systems using above systems with remote management Fully Removable layer

  1. Smart elastoplasts
  2. Smart contact lenses with cameras and video
  3. Smart suits with sensors and actuators for sports and work
  4. Almost all conventional personal electronic devices
  5. Web server
  6. Web sites

Active Skin – an old idea whose time is coming

Active Skin

In May 2001, while working in BT research, I had an idea – how we could use the skin surface as a new platform for electronics. I grabbed a few of my colleagues - Robin Mannings, Dennis Johnston, Ian Neild, and Paul Bowman, and we shut ourselves in a room for a few hours to brainstorm it. We originally intended to patent some of the ideas, but they weren’t core business for a telecoms company like BT so that never happened.

Now, 12.5 years on, it is too late to extract any value from a patent, but some of the technologies are starting to appear around the world as prototypes by various labs and companies, so it’s time is drawing near. We never did publish the ideas, though a few did make it out via various routes and I talk about active skin in my writings more generally. So I thought I’d serialise some of the ideas list now – there are lots. This one will just be the intro.

Introduction

Today we have implants in the body, and wearable devices such as watches and cell-phones in regular proximity to our bodies, with a much looser affiliation to other forms of electronics such as palmtops and other computers. With recent advances in miniaturisation, print technology and polymer based circuits, a new domain is now apparent but as yet unexploited, and offers enormous potential business for a nimble first-mover. The domain is the skin itself, where the body meets the rest of the world. We have called it active skin, and it has a wide range of potential applications.

Active skin layers

Stimulated by MIT work in late 1990s that has shown that the skin can be used as a communications medium, a logical progression is to consider what other uses it might be put to. What we proposed is a multi-layer range of devices.Slide2

(actually, this original pic wasn’t drawn quite right. The transfer layer sits just on the skin, not in it.)

The innermost ‘tattoo layer’ is used for smart tattoos, which are permanently imprinted into the lower layers of the skin. These layers do not wear or wash away.

The next ‘mid-term’ layer is the upper layers of the skin, which wear away gradually over time.

Above this we move just outside to the ‘transfer layer’. Children frequently wear ‘tattoos’ that are actually just transfers that stick onto the skin surface, frequently on a thin polymer base. They are fairly robust against casual contact, but can be removed fairly easily.

The final ‘detachable layer’ is occupied by fully removable devices that are only worn on a temporary basis, but which interact with the layers below.

Above this is the ‘wearable layer; the domain of the normal everyday gadget such as a watch.

A big advantage for this field is that space is not especially limited, so devices can be large in one or two dimensions. However, they must be flexible and very thin to be of use in this domain and be more comfortable than the useful alternatives.

Technology Convergence – What’s your Plan? Guest post by Rohit Talwar

Rohit is CEO of Fastfuture and a long-standing friend as well as an excellent futurist. He and I used to do a joint newsletter, and we have started again. Rohit sends it out to his mailing list as a proper newletter and because I don’t use mailing lists, I guest post it here. I’ll post my bit immediately after this one. I’m especially impressed since his bit ticks almost as many filing category boxes as it uses words.

Here is Rohit’s piece:

Technology Convergence – What’s your Plan?

I have just returned from South Korea where I was delivering a keynote speech to a cross-industry forum on how to prepare for and benefit from the opportunities arising from industry convergence. South Korea has made a major strategic commitment starting with government and running through the economy to be a leader in exploiting the potential opportunities arising from the convergence of industries made possible by advances in a range of disciplines. These include information and communications technology, biological and genetic sciences, energy and environmental sciences, cognitive science, materials science and nanotechnology.  From environmental monitoring, smart cars, and intelligent grids through to adaptive bioengineered materials and clothing-embedded wearable sensor device that monitor our health on a continuous basis – the potential is vast.

What struck me about the situation in Korea was how the opportunity is being viewed as a central component of the long-term future of Korea’s economy and how this is manifested in practice. Alongside a national plan, a government sponsored association has been established to drive and facilitate cross-industry collaboration to achieve convergence. In addition to various government-led support initiatives, a range of conferences are being created to help every major sector of the economy understand, explore, act on and realise the potential arising out of convergence.

I am fortunate to get the opportunity to visit 20-25 countries a year across all six continents and get to study and see a lot of what is happening to create tomorrow’s economy. Whilst my perspective is by no means complete, I am not aware of any country where such a systematic and rigorous approach is being taken to driving industry convergence. Those who study Korea know that this approach is nothing new for them – long term research and strategic planning are acknowledged to have played a major role in the evolution of its knowledge economy and rise of Korea and its technology brands on the global stage. Coming from the UK, where it seems that long term thinking and national policy are now long lost relatives, I wonder why it is that so few countries are willing to or capable of taking such a strategic approach.

Rohit on the Road

In the next few months Rohit will delivering speeches in Oslo, Paris, Vilnius, Warsaw, Frankfurt, Helsinki, Denver, Las Vegas, Oman, Leeds and London. Topics to be covered include human enhancement, the future of professional services, the future of HR, transformational forces in business, global drivers of change, how smart businesses create the future, the future technology timeline, the future of travel and tourism, the future of airlines and airports and the future of education. If you would like to arrange a meeting with Rohit in one of these cities or are interested in arranging a presentation or workshop for your organisation, please contact rohit@fastfuture.com