Will population grow again after 2050? To 15Bn?

We’ve been told for decades now that population will level off, probably around 2050, and population after that will likely decline. The world population will peak around 2050 at about 9.5 Billion. That’s pretty much the accepted wisdom at the moment.

The reasoning is pretty straight forward and seems sound, and the evidence follows it closely. People are becoming wealthier. Wealthier people have fewer kids. If you don’t expect your kids to die from disease or starvation before they’re grown up, you don’t need to make as many.

But what if it’s based on fallacy? What if it is just plain wrong? What if the foundations of that reasoning change dramatically by 2050 and it no longer holds true? Indeed. What if?

Before I continue, let me say that my book ‘Total Sustainability’, and my various optimistic writings and blogs about population growth all agree with the view that population will level off around 2050 and then slowly decline, while food supply and resource use will improve thanks to better technologies, thereby helping us to restore the environment. If population may increase again, I and many others will have to rethink.

The reason I am concerned now is that I just made another cross-link with the trend of rising wealth, which will allow even the most basic level of welfare to be set at a high level. It is like the citizen payment that the Swiss voted on recently. I suggested it a couple of years ago myself and in my books, and am in favour of it. Everyone would receive the same monthly payment from the state whether they work or not. The taxes due would then be calculated on the total income, regardless of how you get it, and I would use a flat tax for that too. Quite simple and fair. Only wealthier people pay any tax and then according to how wealthy they are. My calculations say that by 2050, everyone in the UK could get £30,000 a year each (in today’s money) based on the typical level of growth we’ve seen in recent decades (ignoring the recession years). In some countries it would be even higher, in some less, but the cost of living is also less in many countries. In many countries welfare could be as generous as average wages are today.

So by 2050, people in many countries could have an income that allows them to survive reasonably comfortably, even without having a job. That won’t stop everyone working, but it will make it much easier for people who want to raise a family to do so without economic concerns or having to go out to work. It will become possible to live comfortably without working and raise a family.

We know that people tend to have fewer kids as they become wealthier, but there are a number of possible reasons for that. One is the better survival chances for children. That may still have an effect in the developing world, but has little effect in richer countries, so it probably won’t have any impact on future population levels in those countries. Another is the need to work to sustain the higher standard of living one has become used to, to maintain a social status and position, and the parallel reluctance to have kids that will make that more difficult. While a small number of people have kids as a means to solicit state support, but that must be tiny compared to the numbers who have fewer so that they can self sustain. Another reason is that having kids impedes personal freedom, impacts on social life and sex life and adds perhaps unwelcome responsibility. These reasons are all vulnerable to the changes caused by increasing welfare and consequential attitudes. There are probably many other reasons too. 

Working and having fewer kids allows a higher standard of living than having kids and staying at home to look after them, but most people are prepared to compromise on material quality of life to some degree to get the obvious emotional rewards of having kids. Perhaps people are having fewer kids as they get wealthier because the drop of standard of living is too high, or the risks too high. If the guaranteed basic level of survival is comfortable, there is little risk. If a lot of people choose not to work and just live on that, there will also be less social stigma in not working, and more social opportunities from having more people in the same boat. So perhaps we may reasonably deduce that making it less uncomfortable to stop work and have more kids will create a virtuous circle of more and more people having more kids.

I won’t go as far as saying that will happen, just that it might. I don’t know enough about the relative forces that make someone decide whether to have another child. It is hard to predetermine the social attitudes that will prevail in 2050 and beyond, whether people will feel encouraged or deterred from having more kids.

My key point here is that the drop in fertility we see today due to increasing wealth might only hold true up to a certain point, beyond which it reverses. It may simply be that the welfare and social floor is too low to offer a sufficient safety net for those considering having kids, so they choose not to. If the floor is raised thanks to improving prosperity, as it might well be, then population could start to rise quickly again. The assumption that population will peak at 9 or 9.5 billion and then fall might be wrong. It could rise to up to 15 billion, at which point other factors will start to reassert themselves. If our assumptions on age of death are also underestimates, it could go even higher.

4 responses to “Will population grow again after 2050? To 15Bn?

  1. I don’t have a personal stake in the world after 2050. I’ll be dead. However, there are many theories that aren’t usually factored into predictions about population growth and resources. The two biggest limiters are famine caused by climate change, and pandemics. Famine is cyclical and likely if warming trends restrict agricultural viability.

    Diseases are harder to anticipate historically. If H1N1 (avian flu) mutates and combines with another strain unexpectedly, we won’t be able to manufacture immunizations in time to prevent massive deaths. That’s an event similar to the 1918 influenza pandemic. There are also at least a dozen viruses that cause hemorrhagic fever like Marburg and Ebola that could mutate to less virulent forms. If they killed more slowly, like HIV does, they could spread much farther – and we have no treatment for them except whole body fluid transfusion, impractical in most cases.

    On an unrelated positive note, those are cool, futuristic-looking spectacles!

    • Thanks, I’ve had these glasses over 10 years and I still can’t find any that are an improvement. Sadly, the manufacturers don’t make styles like this any more. On climate change, I am more worried about the increasingly likely global cooling than warming now, as it could cause far worse problems, though warming might well return in the far future when the natural cycles start to head the same direction as AGW. On disease, I share your concerns and I think we’ve mostly just been lucky so far. It takes far too long to produce solutions to new biothreats, but increasing urbanisation and travel makes it easier for viruses to spread quickly and overuse of antibiotics has greatly reduced our armoury against bacteria too. Biowarfare may well enter the terrorism realm too. There are a few encouraging efforts, such as mechanical rupturing and UV cleaning, but these are designed for killing things before they enter the body. Once they’re in, we have to hope some wonderful futuristic nanotech can deal with them, but it isn’t in sight yet.

  2. Pingback: Futureseek Daily Link Review; 6 February 2014 | Futureseek Link Digest

  3. Pingback: 21st Century Social Problems, updated | The more accurate guide to the future

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